2026年6月19日早间宏观策略简报

Date19 June 2026 EconomicsEarly Morning Reid Macro Strategy Jim ReidGlobal Head of Macro and ThematicResearch+44-20-754-72943 Key MarketData(Index @ Close // Change) (S&P 500 @ 7501 // +1.08%)(STOXX Europe 600 @ 637 //-0.34%)(iTraxx Crossover @ 249 //-3)(Brent Oil^ @ 79.45 // +1.00%)(10yr Treasury^ @ 4.45 //-2 bp)(10yr Bund @ 2.93 // 0 bp) Henry AllenMacro Strategist+44-20-754-11149 Peter Sidorov, CFASenior Economist+1-585-615-0253 Asim KaulResearch Associate As we draw to the end of abuoyantweek where peace in the Middle East brokeout,markets are a bit weaker in Asia this morning amid lighter trading volumesdue to various holiday closures and with theUSoff later today.The KOSPI isleading regional declines, down-2.08% after having surpassed the 9,000 markfor the first time in the previous session, while the S&P/ASX 200 is also weaker,falling-1.15%.The Nikkei is broadly unchanged though, but all eyes are on theYen which is broadly unchanged at 161.38 after hitting 161.80 late in theUS There were no scares from theJapaneseinflation numbers out this morningthough with all measures in line with expectations.HeadlineCPI rose by 1.5% y/yin May, up slightly from 1.4% in the previous month. Core inflation (excluding both Elsewhere, markets inChinaandHong Kongremain shut for holidays.OutsideAsia,USequity futures are softer, with S&P 500 futures down-0.52% and Here in theUK, the main story is the Makerfield by-election result overnight,whereGreater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has emerged as thecomfortable winner by 20pp and with 54.8% of the vote.That means he’s now anMPagain, putting him in a position where he can now challenge incumbent PMKeir Starmer for the Labour leadership.Burnham was already the strong favourite weekend, and if others call on Starmer to go.The briefings suggest Burnham’steam are hoping for an orderly transition where Starmer stands down,but ifStarmer does decide to fight a contest, then he’s automatically on the ballot as Ahead of all that, markets put in a strong performance yesterday, following thesigning of theUS-Iranmemorandum of understanding the previous evening. So that eliminated fears that either side might call off the deal at the last minute.Upbeatcommentary from US officials also encouraged investors to fadeconcerns over the economic effects of the war, although an initial tumble in oil An initial decline in oil prices was supported by signals that oil was starting to flowagain, withVice PresidentJDVance saying yesterday that 12.5mn barrels of oilpassed through the Strait of Hormuz the previous night, and that nearly a dozenships had gone through theUSblockade. Meanwhile, we got more details on thedeal in a post fromIran’s President Pezeshkian.It showed thatIranwould makearrangements for the safe passage of commercial vessels, “with no charge for 60days only”, and thatIranwould be in dialogue withOman“to define the futureadministration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz”. So that meant the This backdrop led to growing optimism about the near-term outlook and helpedmarkets post fresh gains, withUSTreasuries posting a decent rebound after theirFed-driven losses on Wednesday. So the10yr yield fell by-3.4bps to 4.45%,whilst the 2yr yield fell by a marginal-0.6bps to 4.18% as curve flatteningcontinued. The more stable front-end rates also came amid some steady data with USequities also recovered at the same time, with theS&P 500 (+1.08%) postinga solid rebound. In part, that was driven by easing fears around inflation. But therewas also a strong rebound for tech stocks, including a big surge forIntel(+10.64%) after Trump posted that “Applehas agreed to work withIntelto designand build its Chips in America.”The Philly Semiconductor index (+6.42%) surgedto a new record high after a very volatile period that has seen the index move byat least 5% in six of the past ten trading days. At the negative end,Accenture(- Before the overnightUKpolitical news, we also had the Bank of England’sdecision yesterday, where they held rates at 3.75% as expected. Meanwhile, theirguidance was also unchanged, with the statement saying that the MPC “standsready to act as necessary.” Admittedly,two of the nine members wanted a 25bprate hike, one more than the last meeting, but that was also expected by the Otherwise in Europe, markets put in a generally steady performance. Whilst therewas relief at falling oil prices, they also were catching up to the more hawkish-than-expectedFeddecision the previous day, so the two effects balanced eachother out. Ultimately,10yr bund yields (+0.1bps) were essentially unchanged at2.93%, whilst yields on 10yr OATs (+1.2bps) and BTPs (+1.1bps) were slightlyhigher. The equity performance was also fairly mixed, with theSTOXX 600 (- Looking at the day ahead, and it’s a quieter one asUSmarkets are closed for theJuneteenth holiday. Otherwise, data releases include theUK’s retail sales andpublic finances for May, along withGermany’s PPI for May. We’ll