2026年6月15日-6月19日工业股周报

USA | Multi-Industrials Industrials Week Ahead (6/15-6/19) We preview this week's important data releases and events affecting theindustrial sector. Monday NY mfg. activity (Jun.):NY mfg. activity increased ~9pts M/M in May to its highest level sinceApr. 2022 on higher orders, and lengthening delivery times. Supply availability worsened. Input andselling prices increased sharply. NAHB HMI (Jun.):May Builder Confidence increased 3pts M/M to 37, reflecting a slight springdemand recovery despite continued weakness in the housing market due to elevated interest rates,high input costs, and economic uncertainty. Mfg. IP (May):Mfg. production increased 0.6% M/M in Apr., driven by durable goods. Capacityutilization increased 0.4% M/M to 75.7%. Stephen Volkmann, CFA * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-2031 | svolkmann@jefferies.com Chirag Patel * | Equity Associate(212) 284-1773 | cpatel@jefferies.com James Ko * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8961 | jko@jefferies.com Alex Dwyer * | Equity Associate(212) 323-7698 | adwyer@jefferies.com Jamie Simonson * | Equity Associate+1 (917) 344-1852 | jsimonson1@jefferies.com Eurozone Industrial Production (Apr.):Industrial Production in the Eurozone increased 0.2% M/M,though was down 2.7% Y/Y in Mar. Construction Backlog (May):Apr. construction backlog increased 0.2M M/M as confidence onsales, margins and hiring rose industry-wide, despite cost pressures and weak spend data. 42% ofthe largest contractors reported working data center projects versus just 7% of smaller firms, withlonger backlogs of 12.2M vs. 8.3M for others. Despite diverging levels of backlog, ABC contractormembers of all sizes remain confident about the outlook. Permits and Starts (May):Apr. single-family housing permits and starts decreased 2.6% and 9%M/M (-5.5% and -2.4% Y/Y), respectively. Multifamily permits and starts increased 21.8% and 10.3%M/M (+9.2% and +19.7% Y/Y), respectively. Thursday Philadelphia Mfg. activity (Jun.):Mfg. activity in Philly decreased ~27pts M/M in May on lowerorders and shipments. Price and cost indexes softened but remained elevated. Firms remainoptimistic about growth over the next six months, as most future indicators rose from alreadyelevated readings. LEI (May):LEI increased 0.1% M/M in Apr. Conference Board expects modest growth, projecting2026 GDP at 1.7% Y/Y, with business investment supported by AI, data centers, and energy, butoffset partly by weak hiring, elevated energy costs, and pressured consumer purchasing power,particularly for lower- and middle-income households. Cutting Tools (Apr.):Mar. cutting tool orders increased 24.6% Y/Y and 15.2% M/M. Commentarypointed to higher unit volumes but warned that nominal growth could be distorted by high rawmaterial inflation, energy prices, and buy-ahead behavior. Dodge Construction Starts (May):Apr. construction starts increased 9% M/M, non-resi re-accelerated +19% M/M (+6% in Mar.), non-building starts decelerated +7% M/M (+38% M/M in Mar.)and resi decreased slightly, by -70bps M/M (+2.6% in Mar.). Nine out of the 15 categories posteddouble- or triple-digit growth, signaling widespread momentum. WSJ Vistage Small Business CEO Survey (Jun.):Small Business CEO Confidence Index increased0.6pt M/M to 84.0 in May (vs 12-month avg. of 88.6). Revenue expectations increased M/M, whileprofitability expectations were less upbeat, as small businesses are absorbing cost increases fromenergy, tariffs, and labor rather than passing them through to customers. Competitive pressure,and the desire to protect customer relationships are also preventing price increases. CEO Outlook (2Q26):The CEO Economic Outlook Index increased 9pts Q/Q to 89 (above itshistorical avg. of 83) during 1Q26. Employment, capex, and sales expectations increased 9pts,12pts and 6pts Q/Q, respectively. Analyst Certification: I, Stephen Volkmann, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report. I, Chirag Patel, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report. I, James Ko, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report. I, Alex Dwyer, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflec