6月FOMC：鹰派点阵图导致市场加息预期升温

易峘研究员SAC No. S0570520100005SFC No. AMH263evayi@htsc.com+(852) 3658 600000000000000 华泰研究00000000000 2026年6月18日│中国内地 动态点评 胡李鹏，PhD研究员SAC No.S0570525010001SFC No. BWA860hulipeng@htsc.com+(86) 10 6321 1166 概览：北京时间6月18日（周四）凌晨美联储公布6月议息会议决定，政策利率维持在3.5-3.75%，点阵图指示2026年可能预防式加息；沃什在记者会上对前瞻指引、联储运作的表态与此前类似，并宣布成立包括货币政策沟通在内的五个工作组，兑现其改革联储的承诺。 赵文瑄*研究员SAC No. S0570526040002zhaowenxuan@htsc.com+(86) 10 6321 1166 联储6月会议如期维持政策利率在3.5-3.75%，但点阵图指示2026年加息偏鹰派，沃什展现出改革联储的决心。决议声明如期删除暗示未来可能降息的“宽松倾向”（easing bias），并增加“生产率增长与资本投资依然保持强劲”的表述，点阵图显示9名委员要求2026年至少加息1次，超过此前预期。本次会议沃什展现出改革联储的决心：决议声明删除前瞻指引，文本大幅精简，不再公布投票情况；沃什未提交点阵图和经济预测；宣布成立包括货币政策沟通在内的五个工作组，兑现改革联储的承诺。鹰派点阵图导致市场加息预期回升，截至北京时间凌晨4:30，相较会议前，2026年加息预期升温17bp至39bp；2y、10y美债收益率分别上行12bp、5bp至4.19%、4.48%；美元指数上涨0.8%至100.4；美股三大股指分别下跌1.0-1.3%，黄金下跌2.2%至4282美元/盎司。0000000000000000000000 丁煦洲*联系人SAC No. S0570126020028dingxuzhou@htsc.com+(86) 10 6321 116600000000000 沃什延续此前立场，拒绝给出前瞻指引，决议声明中删除前瞻指引；但点阵图指示2026年可能加息。沃什此前一直反对前瞻指引，6月会议上也未提交经济预测（SEP）和点阵图，在记者会上也拒绝给出对未来利率的指引，强调下次会议委员会将做出决策。对于货币政策是否具有限制性，沃什表示各部门并不均衡—地产市场偏紧，但金融市场整体宽松。沃什以外的其他18名联储委员仍然提交了点阵图：9名委员要求2026年至少加息1次，9名委员要求维持利率不变或者降息，中位数指向小幅加息；2027年政策利率维持在当前水平，2028年降息1次，政策利率水平相对3月普遍上调。0000000000000000000000 经济预测方面，联储下调增长、失业率预测，并上调通胀预测。增长预测方面，2026年四季度实际GDP同比增速下调0.2pp至2.2%。通胀预测方面，2026年四季度PCE、核心PCE同比分别大幅上调0.9pp、0.6pp至3.6%、3.3%，2027年亦小幅上调，2028年PCE通胀回到2%。失业率预测方面，2026年四季度失业率下调0.1pp至4.3%，2027-2028年维持不变。0000000000000000000000 沃什宣布将成立5个改革工作组，兑现其改革联储的承诺。5个改革工作组包括：联储沟通机制、资产负债表政策、数据方法论、通胀框架以及在转型时代生产率与就业的变化。沃什预计秋季有部分成果，工作组的大部分内容将在2026年底完成，届时将对联储沟通以及货币政策产生影响。例如，沟通机制工作组将评估SEP、点阵图及新闻发布会等现有形式，可能出现新的沟通框架，并改革SEP；资产负债表工作组将审查充裕准备金制度的利弊及替代运行框架，可能导致联储资产负债表政策的调整。0000000000000000000000 往前看，虽然市场预防式加息概率上升，但基准情形仍然是2026年下半年维持利率不变。沃什在记者会上拒绝提供关于利率的前瞻指引，但鹰派点阵图意味着如果后续就业数据持续向好，且通胀位于高位，联储下半年启动预防式加息的可能性上升，当前市场已经定价2026年下半年将累计加息39bp。考虑到就业市场后续或有所降温，而油价回落、关税影响消退、住房和工资增速维持低位有助于压低通胀，我们维持此前判断，9月前联储将维持利率不变，年底12月加息概率接近50%，基准情形为2026年下半年不加息，至明年底可能累计加息2次（参见《联储明年可能有必要加息》，2026/5/20）。此外，考虑到工作组在年底前才能完成工作方案，预计联储沟通、资产负债表政策等实质性变化最快在2027年落地。0000000000000000000000 风险提示：美国就业市场超预期走强，货币政策超预期紧缩。 资料来源：美联储，华泰研究 附录：2026年6月和2026年4月FOMC声明的对比 The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12–0vote:Recentindicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low,on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation is elevated, in partreflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.000000000000000000000000000000000 The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, insupport of theFederal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining amplereserves in the banking system.The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at therate of2 percent over the longer run. Developments in theMiddle East are contributing to a high level ofuncertainty about the economic outlook. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dualmandate.000000000000000000000000000000000 Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict inthe Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with theworkforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.In support of its goals, the Committee decided tomaintain the targetrange for the federal funds rate at 3‐1/2 to 3‐3/4 percent. In considering the extent andtiming of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefullyassess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed tosupporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.000000000000000000000000000000000 Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that havedrivenprice increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.Inassessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications ofincoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance ofmonetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. TheCommittee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, includingreadings on labormarket conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.000000000000000000000000000000000 Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S.Barr; MichelleW. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Philip N. Jefferson; Anna Paulson; and Christopher J. Waller. Votingagainst this action were Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by1/4 percentage point at this meeting; and Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and