汽车与汽车零部件行业：长城汽车NDR要点，出口持续激增，关键产品即将发布

ASIA-PACIFIC excl. Japan | Autos & Auto PartsGreat Wall Motor-A NDR Takeaways: Exports Still Surging; KeyLaunches on Deck We attended GWM's May sales NDR. Exports remain the standout at 50.7kunits, up 47% YoY. Mgmt guides monthly shipments to 60-70k in 3Q and70-80k by 4Q, implying upside to the 600k FY26 export target. Three newmodels launching in Jun-Jul each carry 10K/m steady-state potential, while May sales: 100k units sold, exports the clear bright spot.GWM sold 100.4k units in May(-1.8% YoY, -5.6% MoM). Overseas hit 50.7k (+46.8% YoY), while domestic came in at just49.7k (-26.6% YoY, -11.0% MoM). The domestic weakness is model-transition driven: buyersare waiting for the all-new Tank 300 refresh (pre-sale Jun, launch Jul), and Menglong Plus onlywent on sale mid-month and is still ramping. On a cumulative basis, 5M26 sales came in at475.8k (+3.6% YoY) with overseas at 231.3k (+46.8% YoY). Mgmt did not reiterate the 1.8mnunit FY26 target but flagged upside to the 600k export goal. Separately, production has run Jun-Jul pipeline looks loaded.Three MIIT-approved models are set to launch, each with 10k/m steady-state potential: targets a return to the original Tank 300's peak sales.• •V8X:premium 5-seat SUV below the V9X, with upgrades across handling, ADAS, and Recently launched models are tracking well: Tank 700 booked 600-700 orders on its lastpromo day (steady-state 2-3K/m); Menglong Plus converting at 50% with 300 orders/day; V9Xdelivered 1,018 in May (steady-state 5K/m). Further out, Haval will add a 2nd-gen Xiaolong Overseas: volume inflecting, margins following.June exports should hit 60k once shippingnormalizes, and mgmt sees a clear path to 60-70k/m in 3Q and 70-80k/m in 4Q. Thegeographic mix is fairly diversified: Russia ~30%, LatAm ~25%, RHD ~25%, with EU/ME/ASEANstill early but picking up. Haval remains the workhorse at ~70% of overseas volume, while Tank(FY26 target: 70-100K) and ORA (~10% mix target) are scaling fast. The margin story is equallyencouraging. LatAm and RHD are delivering both volume and profit; Russia has bounced backto high-teens thousand units/month with better profitability YoY, helped by Tank KD production Margins: mix shift doing the work.Per mgmt, Tank leads at 30-35% GPM, Pickup sits at ~20%,WEY/Haval at mid-teens, and ORA in single digits but improving with scale. T As Tank 700/500take a larger share and higher-margin overseas markets grow, blended margins should keep Xiaoyi Lei * | Equity Analyst852 3767 1126 | xiaoyi.lei@jefferies.comAaron Wang * | Equity Analyst+852 3767 1121 | aaron.wang@jefferies.com ADAS: making city NOA a mass-market feature.Mapless NOA is already live on WEY andTank new models, and mgmt is working to bring city NOA into lower price bands, with even ORA models around RMB100K set to offer it. Overseas, smart cockpit is the near-term priority,with ADAS capabilities to follow. Great Wall Motor Co Ltd (601633 CH / 2333 HK)Equity Research Company Description Great Wall Motor Co Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in Chinaunder branded names. The company also researches and develops, and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in Great Wall Motor-A Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in Chinaunder branded names. The company also researches and develops, and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in Company Valuation/Risks Great Wall Motor Co A/H PT of RMB30.4/HKD22.0 based on 18x/12x 2026E EPS.Risks: More intense price war than expected; lower than expected export sales A/H PT of RMB30.4/HKD22.0 based on 18x/12x 2026E EPS. Risks: More intense price war than expected; lower than expected export sales Analyst Certification:I, Xiaoyi Lei, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views I, Aaron Wang, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views Registration of non-US analysts:Xiaoyi Lei is employed by Jefferies Hong Kong Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualifiedas a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may not be subjectto the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst. Re