美国制造业产能爬坡：美国制造业回流研究

AuthorsRebecca J. AndersonJeff CondonOlivia WhiteEric Kutcher Confidential and proprietary. Any use ofthis material without specific permission ofMcKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited. Copyright © 2026 McKinsey & Company.All rights reserved.Cover image: Big crane with american flag starsand stripes © izanbar/Getty Images. All interior McKinsey Global Institute The McKinsey Global Institute was established in 1990. Our mission is to provide a fact base toaid decision making on the economic and business issues most critical to the world’s companiesand policy leaders. We benefit from the full range of McKinsey’s regional, sectoral, and functional Our research is currently grouped into five major themes: —Productivity and prosperity: Creating and harnessing the world’s assets most productively—Resources of the world: Building, powering, and feeding the world sustainably We aim for independent and fact-based research. None of our work is commissioned or funded byany business, government, or other institution; we share our results publicly free of charge; and weare entirely funded by the partners of McKinsey. While we engage multiple distinguished externaladvisers to contribute to our work, the analyses presented in our publications are MGI’s alone, and You can find out more about MGI and our research atwww.mckinsey.com/mgi. MGI partners MGI directors Shubham Singhal (chair)Chris BradleyTanguy CatlinKweilin Ellingrud Arvind GovindarajanMekala KrishnanAnu MadgavkarJan Mischke Contents At a glance1Introduction3 CHAPTER 1Made abroad: America’s increasingimport dependence5 CHAPTER 2Quantifying the ramp-up neededto replace imports15 CHAPTER 4The new capacity needed to address CHAPTER 5Jobs, jobs, jobs?39 CHAPTER 6Anticipating and influencing Acknowledgments54Endnotes55 At a glance —Amid deepening geopolitical fragmentation, the United States imports $3 trillion inmanufactured goods annually.About 25 percent of these are particular “Achilles’ heels”—dueto some combination of criticality to national security, supply concentration, and geopolitical —We introduce a “ramp-up factor” to quantify what it would take for the United States toproduce more at home.For those exposed products in the Achilles’ heel, manufacturing wouldneed to double on average to fully meet domestic demand. In some cases the ramp-up factor ismuch larger, for example, over five for some active pharmaceutical ingredients and over ten for —Running today’s factories at peak capacity would generate $660 billion more in output—but hardly touch the biggest exposures.About 40 percent of this extra production would be —Addressing key vulnerabilities would require a transformed industrial base.Building capacityto produce exposed products and their upstream inputs could cost on the order of $2 trillion,about 6 percent of GDP. Funding could be the (relatively) easy part: Specialized skills, supporting —Nothing will happen without a business case.Maintaining competitiveness in the globaleconomy, and security in a volatile world, may require some domestic ramp-up. But this will entailprioritization and trade-offs, along with new approaches to technology, automation, and skills. The scale of ramp-up varies across manufacturing sectors. Ramp-up factor (sustained US manufacturing output required to meet all US demand for a product,as a multiple of recent peak capacity), 2025¹ Introduction “Made in America” has beenpart economic policy and part rallying cry for generations. But the United States has been producing less and less of the global total. In 2000, it was the world’sleading manufacturer. Today, the country produces just a quarter of China’s output. The United Statesdid not lose manufacturing dominance overnight, and it remains the world’s second-largest producer.As the global economy grew, trade liberalization, modern shipping containers, and global internet Should the United States attempt to rebuild its industrial base? For decades, proponents havepointed to the widening trade deficit and shrinking manufacturing base as drags on US growth thatdrain the economy’s ability to create high-paying jobs. Others counter that the economy operatesmost efficiently when businesses and consumers can buy the goods and services they want at the Today’s age of increasing geopolitical competition and rapid technological progress has recast thedebate with renewed intensity. Simply assembling goods in the United States may not be enoughto alleviate concerns about the manufacturing sector. The materials and components that go intoAI technology, smartphones, and electric vehicles are just as crucial. Both economic and national It’s not just about limiting risk. In some advanced industries, the rapid innovation that drives nationalcompetitiveness and productivity growth increasingly depends on maintaining a close connectionwith physical production, even where software and design once seemed to be decoupled frommanufacturing. For example, li