气候变化对摩洛哥蓝色经济的影响：沿海旅游业的就业前景

CLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGEIMPACTS ON THE BLUEIMPACTS ON THE BLUEECONOMY IN MOROCCO:ECONOMY IN MOROCCO:Public Disclosure Authorized Prospects for Jobs in Coastal Tourism This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, andconclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank or The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. Theboundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work Authors: Kanako Hasegawa and Ulrike Lehr Contents ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONSEXECUTIVE SUMMARYRÉSUMÉيذيفنت صخلم VII IX XV XXI 1.INTRODUCTION 1.1BACKGROUND1.2TOURISM SECTOR IN MOROCCO1.3OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE CONTEXT IN MOROCCO 2.CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON TOURISM RELATED JOBS IN 2.1GENERAL MODELING APPROACH2.2TOURISM RECEIPTS AND CONSUMPTION STRUCTURE2.3CLIMATE CHANGE – EFFECTS, DAMAGES AND 3.CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS LIST OF FIGURES Figure ES 1: Job losses along the value chain (percentage compared to reference)Figure 1:Growth of the tourism sector in MoroccoFigure 2:Number of international arrivals in MoroccoFigure 3:Blue tourism employees by ageFigure 4:Nights spent in tourist accommodation establishments in main coastaltourism destinations in Morocco.Figure 5:Modeling approachFigure 6:Tourism receipts in MoroccoFigure 7:Consumption distribution for households and tourist, percent LIST OF TABLES Table 1:Summary of recommendations to build climate resilience of thecoastal tourism sector LIST OF BOXES Box 1:Vision 2020Box 2:Climate action in the Souss-Massa regionBox 3:Developing the resilience of coastal tourism in Senegal Acknowledgments This technical note aims to examine the potential impacts of climate change on coastal tourismjobs in Morocco. This note was prepared to inform a preliminary discussion with the governmentto strengthen coastal tourism’s climate resilience under the ongoing Blue Economy Program This note was prepared by Kanako Hasegawa (Environmental Specialist) and Ulrike Lehr (SeniorEconomist). Technical input was provided by Marcelo Acerbi (Senior Environmental Specialist),Khalid Anouar (Environmental Specialist), Ban Mazen Adeeb Edilbi (Young Professional), AliAhmad (Climate Change Specialist), and Shaun Mann (Senior Private Sector Specialist). It was The team would like to thank Ms. Siham Fellahi (co-coordinator of the Blue Economy Program,Ministry of Economy and Finance, government of Morocco) and Mr. Hassan Aboutayeb (Regional This study was funded byPROBLUE, a multi-donor trust fund housed at the World Bank, thatsupports the development of integrated, sustainable, and healthy marine and coastal resources. Acronyms and Abbreviations AcronymDescriptionICZMIntegrated Coastal Zone ManagementINDHNational Initiative for Human Development Support ProjectIOTInput-Output TablesIPCCIntergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeMSMEsMicro, Small and Medium EnterprisesNDCsNationally Determined ContributionsNDMNew Development ModelPforRProgram for ResultsSDRRegional Development Corporation(Société de Développement Régional)SESIAStrategic Environmental and Social Impact AssessmentSIBESiteof Biological and Ecological Interest(Sites d'Intérêt Biologique et Ecologique)UNFCCCUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The government of Morocco is committed to unleashing the potential of its blue economy. TheNew Development Model underscores the importance of harnessing the potential of Morocco’srich marine and coastal resources in the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. Coastal Coastal tourism is a key economic driver in Morocco. In 2019, the tourism sector made asignificant contribution of seven percent to the country’s GDP, and was a major source of foreigncurrency, accounting for 42 percent of service exports. International arrivals reached 13,109,000 Climate change poses a major and urgent threat to Morocco’s blue economy. Temperatureshave been on the rise, with an observed average increase of 0.2°C per decade since the 1960s(above the global average). The government has acknowledged that coastal ecosystems are Coastal tourism is vulnerable to climate change impacts. Coastal erosion and coastal floodingcould damage key tourism infrastructure. As weather conditions are a key resource for coastaltourism, high temperatures could reduce the attractiveness of these destinations. Forest fires Therefore, an analysis was conducted to examine possible climate change impacts oncoastal tourism jobs in in Morocco. This analysis aims to initiate a crucial discussion withthe government to strengthen coastal tourism’s climate resilience under the ongoing Blue The analysis estimated inbound tourists’ spending structure in Moroccobased on the experience of countries in the same climatic zone (for lack of relevant Moroccan data). Climatechange impacts were then translated into losses of tourist visits—using tourists