马尔代夫-国家气候与发展报告：气候变化对马尔代夫渔业、沿海生态系统和沿海社区的影响-背景文件

Roadmap for Fostering Coral Reef Resilience in the Maldives © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet:www.worldbank.orgThis work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, andconclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of ExecutiveDirectors, or the governments they represent.The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work anddoes not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect tothe use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors,denominations, links/footnotes and other information shown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of TheWorld Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Thecitation of works authored by others does not mean the World Bank endorses the views expressed by those authors orthe content of their works.Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges andimmunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.Rights and PermissionsThe material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge,this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work isgiven. Any querieson rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications,The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. TheImpact of Climate Change on Fisheries, Coastal Ecosystems and CoastalCommunities intheMaldivesTable of ContentsAcknowledgements..............................................................................................................iiAbbreviations......................................................................................................................iiiExecutive Summary.............................................................................................................iv1.Context: climate change impacts on Maldives’ marine and coastal ecosystems.....22.Projecting impact of climate change on marine ecosystems and fisheriesresources.............................................................................................................................72.1.About Climate Change Scenarios......................................................................................72.1.1.Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs)...................................................................................82.1.2Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)........................................................................82.1.3Integration in CMIP6.....................................................................................................................92.2.Changing ocean conditions in Maldives............................................................................92.2.1Historical and projected marine heatwaves (MHW)................................................................102.2.2Projected future changes in environmental variables.............................................................142.3.Climate impacts on habitat suitability and species distribution.....................................192.4Climate risk to marine species.......................................................................................272.5Climate risk to exploited marine species........................................................................323.The implications of climate risk in marine fisheries and coastal resources ondependent human communities.......................................................................................363.1.Climate change impact on economic measures............................................................363.2Social-ecological vulnerability assessment....................................................................383.2.1Dimensions ofvulnerability-national level.............................................................................433.2.2Calculation of the vulnerability index.......................................................................................473.2.3Dimensions of vulnerability-sub-national level......................................................................494.Highlights: climate impact on Maldives’ oceans and fisheries and consequencesfor dependent human communities.................................................................................545.Adaptation options for climate resilient fisheries in the Maldives.........................565.1.Potentia