日本欧洲半导体设备已现涨价初步迹象

JP/EU Semi Equipment: Early signs of price hikes emerging Semi equipment can potentially outperform again.Semi equipment companies havebeen underperforming commodity tech (memory, analog, wafer, substrate, etc.) recentlyas the latter has a price hike theme. However, we believe this is changing as 1. Commoditytech rally inevitably leads to high capex and capacity expansion and hence equipment, David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com Juho Hwang+852 2123 2632juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com Signs of a price hike are emerging.The Japanese equipment makers are mostly pricingin yen, which has depreciated ~30% against USD in the past 3 years. They are in a goodposition to adjust prices against that backdrop. The willingness to do so has been lacking,but recently comments from Tokyo Electron and Screen suggests a potential change in Carmine Milano, CFA+44 20 7762 1857carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.comJack Lin+852 2123 2683jack.lin@bernsteinsg.com Tokyo Electron aims at better pricing to lift GM to 50%+. The company has mademargin improvement a top priority, seeing three steps in adjusting prices: In the near term,they get a lot of expedition requests from customers, and can charge a higher price forsuch requests (which historically they have not). Subsequently, they can negotiate withcustomers on price adjustments for surcharges such as inflation, material, and labor costincreases. Subsequently, when they release new models, they can negotiate for higherprices with better technology, additional functions, new material, etc. Through thesemeasures, they expect to lift GM to 50%+, and OPM to closer to 35% target. The street Screen is also looking to materialize more price / margin upside.Similar to TEL,Screen’s price adjustment is done in two stages. First they negotiate with customers forinflation related price increase, which has already been accepted. Following that, theyare discussing price increases for additional value added from new models introductions. We expect Kokusai to follow suit, as it also prices in yen like TEL and Screen. On theother hand,DISCO/Lasertec/Advantest price in mixed USD & JPY and already haveseen significant margin expansions, so additional price hike benefits should be milder.This also means potentially Japan front end equipment names can outperform backend in ASML / Besi would benefit most from product upgrades, especially for ASML with60% price upside with new EUV (ASML: LNA EUV ASP seeing 60% upside? Outperform)which would send its EUV GM to well above 60%, based on our estimates. But that doesn’tmean ASML can’t or shouldn’t raise prices or charge higher premium for faster delivery, BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate Tokyo Electron (TP=¥59,200) and Kokusai (TP=¥8,240.00 Outperform, and Screen (TP=¥12,600) Market-Perform. We rate ASML (PT=€1,700.00) Besi (PT=€280.00) Outperform. DETAILS DISCLOSURE APPENDIX I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernstein Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY This research publication covers six or more companies. For valuation methodology and other company disclosures:Please visit: https://bernstein-autonomous.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action.Or, you can also write to the Director of Compliance, Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, 245 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10167. RISKS This research publication covers six or more companies. For risks and other company disclosures:Please visit: https://bernstein-autonomous.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action.Or, you can also write to the Director of Compliance, Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, 245 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10167. RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITY RATINGS DEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and