招商能源航运股份有限公司60天内股价将上涨（亚太地区策略投资观点）

June 14, 2026 08:05 PM GMT Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+Qianlei Fan, CFAEquity AnalystQianlei.Fan@morganstanley.com China Merchants Energy Shipping Co. Ltd.| AsiaPacific +852 2239-1875 Research Tactical Idea We believe the share price will rise in absolute terms over the next 60 days. This is because the stock has traded off recently, making short term valuation muchmore compelling. Potential normalization of Middle East shipments could bring spotupside, supported by pent-up crude flows and restocking demand, as well aspotential shortage of available vessel capacity in the region. China Merchants Energy Shipping Co. Ltd. (601872.SS,601872 CG) Hong Kong/China Transportation & Infrastructure|China Stock RatingOverweightIndustry ViewIn-LinePrice targetRmb25.10Shr price, close (Jun 12, 2026)Rmb15.6052-Week RangeRmb21.31-6.00Sh out, dil, curr (mn)8,075Mkt cap, curr (mn)Rmb125,962.8EV, curr (mn)Rmb134,837.5Avg daily trading value (mn)Rmb1,291 We estimate that there is about a 70% to 80% (or "very likely") probability for thescenario. Estimated probabilities are illustrative and assigned subjectively based on ourassessment of the likelihood of the scenario. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Valuation Methodology and Risks China Merchants Energy Shipping Co. Ltd. (601872.SS) Price/book, probability-weighted 25% bull, 60% base, 15% bear. The more positive skewtoward our bull cases reflects VLCC's tight supply, more sanctions on the "dark fleet," andOPEC+ production hikes, despite downside risks from containers. Target 2027e P/B multiples: Base - 3.2x, 2.7SD above historical mean since 2009 Bull - 6.3x, 7.8SD above historical mean since 2009 Bear - 1.6x, 0.1SD above historical mean since 2009 Risks to Upside nMore crude oil shipping demand thanks to Hormuz reopening, or removal of sanctionson Iranian oil exports.nLonger shipment distance for crude and dry bulksnPotential OPEC+ production increase Risks to Downside nWeaker global economy leading to lower crude demandnLower-than-expected crude oil output from OPECnWeaker than expected infrastructure demand in China Disclosure Section The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared or are disseminated by Morgan Stanley Asia Limited (which accepts the responsibility for its contents) and/or MorganStanley Asia (Singapore) Pte. (Registration number 199206298Z) and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Securities Pte Ltd (Registration number 200008434H), regulated by the MonetaryAuthority of Singapore (which accepts legal responsibility for its contents and should be contacted with respect to any matters arising from, or in connection with, Morgan Stanley Research),and/or Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited and/or Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Seoul Branch, and/or Morgan Stanley Australia Limited (A.B.N. 67 003 734 576, holder of Australian financialservices license No. 233742, which accepts responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Australia Pty Ltd (A.B.N. 19 009 145 555, holder of Australian financialservices license No. 240813, which accepts responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited having Corporate Identification No (CIN)U22990MH1998PTC115305, regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (“SEBI”) and holder of licenses as a Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No. INH000001105); Stock Broker(SEBI Stock Broker Registration No. INZ000244438), Merchant Banker (SEBI Registration No. INM000011203), and depository participant with National Securities Depository Limited (SEBIRegistration No. IN-DP-NSDL-567-2021) having registered office at Altimus, Level 39 & 40, Pandurang Budhkar Marg, Worli, Mumbai 400018, India; Telephone no. +91-22-61181000; ComplianceOfficer Details: Mr. Tejarshi Hardas, Tel. No.: +91-22-61181000 or Email: tejarshi.hardas@morganstanley.com; Grievance officer details: Mr. Tejarshi Hardas, Tel. No.: +91-22-61181000 or Email:msic-compliance@morganstanley.com which accepts the responsibility for its contents and should be contacted with respect to any matters arising from, or in connection with, Morgan StanleyResearch, and their affiliates (collectively, "Morgan Stanley"). Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited (MSI