亚太区研究策略观点：巨大生物基因（2367.HK）股价未来30天绝对上涨

Giant Biogene| Asia Pacific Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Dustin WeiEquity AnalystDustin.Wei@morganstanley.com Research Tactical Idea Jenny YuResearch AssociateJenny.Yu1@morganstanley.com We believe the share price will rise in absolute terms over the next 30 days. Lillian LouEquity AnalystLillian.Lou@morganstanley.com Giant Biogene stock did not react positively to the company's robust 2Q26 salesupdate and official launch of its first recombinant collagen injectable last week (seeour note). With the market likely turning more risk-on this week due to potentialMiddle East de-escalation, we think Giant Biogene will screen well as an attractiverisk/reward idea for investors. Its 1H26 sales are tracking ahead of our model, andnow it looks like sales could grow ~20% h/h in 1H26. The stock is trading at 12xN12M P/E and 4-5% dividend yield, which we think is significantly undervalued for agrowth company. Giant Biogene Holding Co Ltd (2367.HK, 2367 HK) Top Pick China/Hong Kong Consumer|China We estimate that there is about a 70% to 80% (or "very likely") probability for thescenario. Stock RatingOverweightIndustry ViewIn-LinePrice targetHK$43.00Shr price, close (Jun 12, 2026)HK$27.0452-Week RangeHK$64.02-25.72Sh out, dil, curr (mn)1,059Mkt cap, curr (mn)Rmb24,725.1EV, curr (mn)Rmb18,366.3Avg daily trading value (mn)HK$371 Estimated probabilities are illustrative and assigned subjectively based on ourassessment of the likelihood of the scenario. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Valuation Methodology and Risks Giant Biogene Holding Co Ltd (2367.HK) Base-case value, target P/E of 21x for 2026e. This implies 1.4x PEG on a 2026-28e EPS CAGR.We believe Giant Biogene's edge in biotech will be undervalued in the near term until its salesgrowth accelerates. Risks to Upside nHigher customer acceptance for recombinant collagen skincarenIncreasing brand awareness for core brandsnFast product rollout and sales growth after the approval of aesthetic productsnPositive outlook on China beauty industry Risks to Downside nFaster OPM contractionnDelays in the approval of new aesthetic productsnRecombinant collagen products losing momentumnIntensifying industry competition along with weak macro Disclosure Section The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared or are disseminated by Morgan Stanley Asia Limited (which accepts the responsibility for its contents) and/or MorganStanley Asia (Singapore) Pte. (Registration number 199206298Z) and/or Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Securities Pte Ltd (Registration number 200008434H), regulated by the MonetaryAuthority of Singapore (which accepts legal responsibility for its contents and should be contacted with respect to any matters arising from, or in connection with, Morgan Stanley Research),and/or Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited and/or Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Seoul Branch, and/or Morgan Stanley Australia Limited (A.B.N. 67 003 734 576, holder of Australian financialservices license No. 233742, which accepts responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Australia Pty Ltd (A.B.N. 19 009 145 555, holder of Australian financialservices license No. 240813, which accepts responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited having Corporate Identification No (CIN)U22990MH1998PTC115305, regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (“SEBI”) and holder of licenses as a Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No. INH000001105); Stock Broker(SEBI Stock Broker Registration No. INZ000244438), Merchant Banker (SEBI Registration No. INM000011203), and depository participant with National Securities Depository Limited (SEBIRegistration No. IN-DP-NSDL-567-2021) having registered office at Altimus, Level 39 & 40, Pandurang Budhkar Marg, Worli, Mumbai 400018, India; Telephone no. +91-22-61181000; ComplianceOfficer Details: Mr. Tejarshi Hardas, Tel. No.: +91-22-61181000 or Email: tejarshi.hardas@morganstanley.com; Grievance officer details: Mr. Tejarshi Hardas, Tel. No.: +91-22-61181000 or Email:msic-compliance@morganstanley.com which accepts the responsibility for its contents and should be contacted with respect to any matters arising from, or in connection with, Morgan Stanle