Coherent (COHR US) - AI光学平台的视角：光学自助餐的投资机会

Optical buffet for AIDC; initiate at BUY We initiate coverage on Coherent with a BUY rating and TP of US$465, basedon 31x FY28E non-GAAP P/E. We view Coherent as a differentiated full-stackAI photonics platform, with exposure across optical transceivers, InP devices,DCI, CPO/NPO, OCS,etc. Near-term growth is anchoredby the 800G/1.6Toptical transceiver ramp and internal 6-inch InP capacity expansion, whileDCI/scale-across, CPO/NPO, OCS and Multi-Rail add incremental revenue Target PriceUp/DownsideCurrent Price GlobalSemiconductors Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hkKevin ZHANG(852) 3761 8727kevinzhang@cmbi.com.hk The core thesis is Coherent's ability to convert AI optical demand intorevenue and margin through internal InP, module scale and system-level photonics.We believe the Company is well positioned because itcontrols multiple scarce layers of the optical stack, including InP EML/CWlasers, photodetectors, passives, transceivers, DCI modules, CPO/NPOoptical-engine content and OCS systems.As AI networks scale from Aaron GUO(852) 3916 3715aaronguo@cmbi.com.hk Coherentdiffers from module-only and laser-centric peers bymonetizing AI optics across full supply chain.Compared with puremodule players,Coherent has stronger upstream component control;comparedwith laser-centric suppliers,it has broader exposure acrossmodules, coherent DCI, optical subsystems and system-level products. This Initiate at BUY with TPofUS$465,based on31x FY28 P/E.We believethe multiple is supported by Coherent's improving growth visibility, internalInP leverage, mix improvement and expanding AI optical infrastructure Key risks include:Slower hyperscaler capex, weaker-than-expected 1.6Tadoption, execution risk in 6-inch InP and module capacity ramp, CPO/NPO Source: FactSet Investment thesis Full-stack AI photonicsplatform Coherent is evolving from a diversified photonics company into a full-stack AI opticalinfrastructure platform, with exposure acrossInP devices, optical transceivers, DCI(datacentre interconnect), CPO(co-packaged optics)/NPO(near-packaged optics),OCS(optical circuit switch), Multi-Rail and thermal solutions. Its investment case isnot just about 800G/1.6T module growth, but about monetizing AI optical demand across The Company’s advantage lies in breadth and integration. Coherent can supply finishedtransceivers, InP EML(electro-absorption modulated laser)/CW(continuous wave)lasers,photodetectors,passive optics,external laser sources,optical-engine assemblies, Multiple revenue engines supported by internal InP and We see Coherent’s growth driven by three main layers. First,800G/1.6T transceiversremain the core near-term revenue engine, supported by strong hyperscaler demand andinternal InP supply. The 6-inch InP ramp strengthens capacity, cost structure and margin Second,DCI and scale-acrossexpand Coherent’s opportunity beyond intra-datacentermodules. As AI workloads spread across multiple sites, Coherent can benefit from ZR/ZR+transceivers, coherent optical components and Multi-Rail systems,with Multi-Rail adding a Third,CPO/NPO, OCS and thermal solutionsadd incremental revenue streams beyondpluggables.CPO/NPO increases content around switch/xPU platforms;OCS addssoftware-defined optical switching for topology reconfiguration; and thermal solutions Improving earnings quality from mix and internal sourcing Coherent’s earnings quality should improve as Datacenter & Communications becomes alarger share of revenue and internal sourcing becomes more visible. The key margin leversare 6-inch InP cost benefits, higher internal component supply, stronger 1.6T mix, and newsubsystem/system products such as CPO/NPO, OCS and Multi-Rail. Industrial remains a Initiate coverage on Coherent (COHR US) with BUY; TP at We initiate coverage on Coherent (COHR US) with a BUY rating and target price ofUS$465,based on 31x FY28E non-GAAP P/E.We forecast revenue to grow22%/54%/36% YoY in FY26/27/28E, driven mainly by Datacenter & Communications.Growth should be supported by the800G/1.6T ramp, internal InP expansion, DCI/scale-across growth, and incremental contribution from CPO/NPO, OCS and Multi-Rail. We Company overview A vertically integrated photonic platform solution provider Coherenthas undergone multiple developmentstages, andits current strategy is the resultof decades of capability accumulation rather than a single product cycle. The Company’sroots inengineered materials and precision opticswere strengthened bysubsidiary Finisar’s optical communications platformand later broadened bylegacy Coherent’slaser and industrial photonics assets.While this history created a complex portfolio, italsogave Coherent a differentiated position across the photonics stack,spanningcompound semiconductor lasers, optical components, transceivers, OCS, CPO/NPO andindustrial laser systems. We believe the key strategic transition is that Coherent is now The Company’s competitive advantage Coherent’s differentiated advan