月度图表：处于良好状态还是过度投保？

Matthew Luzzetti, Amy Yang, Justin WeidnerSourav Dasgupta, Suvir RanjanDeutsche Bank Center, 1 Columbus CircleNewYork,NewYork10019Tel:212 250 6161 1. Doubts on disinflation PCE inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target:excluding the Covid period, core PCE highest since 1992 Irendinflationstucknear3% Inflation is broad-based: Diffusion index shows many pricecomponents wl inflation higher than 2018 (last time at 2%) Inflation is once again broad-based in goods (likely due totariffs) and has been consistently broad-based in supercore Demandis an underappreciateddriverofinflation Al is an inflationary force today Software and accessories inflation Al tools agree Al likely inflationary in near term Alis not convinced that Al is a significant disinflationary force Pipeline inflation (from tariffs) remains elevated Pipeline inflation (PPl) vs core goods inflation Supplydisruptionshaveintensified ISM suppliers deliveries NY Fed global supply chain pressure index Source: ISM, BLS, FRBNY, Haver Analytics, Deutsche Bank Inflation expectations are elevated Beige Book shows intensifying price pressures DB core PCE inflation forecast by component - stickiness isevident this year PCE inflation DB forecasts do not see inflation returning to 2% 2.Fed: Overinsured? The policy rate has moved below policy rules after lastyear's "insurance"cuts The gap between current policy and rule prescriptions isnoticeable on current data and near-term forecasts Note: The right chart shows policy rule prescriptions using end-2026 economic forecasts minus thecurrent fed funds rate. Source: FRB, BLS, CBO, Haver Analytics, Deutsche Bank Timeline for resolution in Iran will impact the Fed trajectory Source: Deutsche Bank outdtheFedhikeratesinZozb?ittustrativecohditionsforrate cuts and hikes Illustrative conditions for rate hikes (red) and cuts (green) in 2026 Note: Green represents rate cut scenarios and red represents rate hike scenarios. Source: Deutsche Bank DBsidehtificatiohoftheZoZbdotsfromthemiarchSE Dot plot ID% Note: The black dots represent permanent voting members, including the Governors and NY Fed president. The greendots represent regional voters in 2026, and red dots represent regional voters in 2027. All other officials arerepresented bythe gray dots Source: FOMC, Deutsche Bank edcommunicationshavebecomemorehawkishinrecentmonths according to DB Al tool DB's r-star dashboard: Real neutral rate around 1.6% Source: FRB, FRBNY, FRB Richmond, FRB Cleveland, FRB San Francisco, Bloomberg Finance LP, HaverAnalytics,DeutscheBank LoosefinancialconditionsindicatethatR-starislikelyhigher rate changes; they are predicting rate hikes Consumer interest rate expectations and Fed funds moves hewidegapbetweenZyyieldsandfedfundsratealsopredicts rate hikes 3. Impact of oil priceshocks on US economy Historically, recessions have often been accompanied by oilprice spikes given rising production and exports of energy products Us energy trade balance has shifted dramatically in the past decade price shocks relatively modest - need oil prices to rise at least 20% above recent peak Source: BEA, Haver Analytics, Deutsche Bank incomes Andifoilpricesrisetowardsbasis it would eliminate benefits of tax cuts from OBBBA The OBBBA provides for a maximum fiscal impulse in FY-2026 Budget deficit to remain historically elevated, particularly inan economy with a relatively healthy labor market Financialconditionshavetightenedabitbutarestilaccommodative and adding to growth Financialconditions 4. Al's impact on theeconomy MostsectorshavewetuIadoptionwithlittlechange over the past month, but adoption is expected to rise Al adoption rate Some sectors with greatest Al exposure have largestincrease in job postings (e.g., software development) Source:IndeedHiringLab,Macrobond,DeutscheBank Sectorswithhigherperform an existing task than introduce a new task Layoffs - and churn - have picked up in some sectors withhigh Al adoption (see Information, including tech) Emergingevidenceofapositiverelationshipbetweenchangein layoff rates (since 2019) and Al adoption Layoffs vs. Al adoption for task replacement Layoffs versus Aladoption Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, Deutsche Bank Little relationship between labor market churn ((separations+ hires )/ employment) and Al adoption rate Labor market churn versus Al adoption Sectors with higher Al adoption have shown moresignificant deceleration in wage growth on average Source: BLS, Census, Haver Analytics, Macrobond, Deutsche Bank The rise in the unemployment rate for 20-24 has reversed inrecent months; 16-19 unemployment still elevated But unemployment rate is elevated for 20-24 year olds witha bachelors degree or higher Al has been an important driver of capex in recent quarters Al doesn't believe Al will meaningfully lift unemploymentover the next year; risks rise for longer time horizons 5. Labor market: Stabilityemerging, re-tightening a risk Smoothed