Adobe 2026年第二季度点评：业绩良好但不确定性增加

Mark L. Moerdler, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8506mark.moerdler@bernsteinsg.com Firoz Valliji, CFA+1 917 344 8316firoz.valliji@bernsteinsg.com Shelly Tang, CFA+1 917 344 8342shelly.tang@bernsteinsg.com Price Target ADBE 379.00 USD(447.00OLD) Adobe 2Q26: good quarter, but increased uncertainties Adobe delivered good results for 2Q and guided above consensus for 3Q, yet the stock wasdown ~5% after market. We see three factors driving the stock reaction: 1) CFO announceddeparture by the end of the week, and, coupled with CEO transition announced last quarter,adds more near-term uncertainty; 2) AI disruption concerns continue to weigh on the broaderSaaS basket including Adobe; 3) Adobe plans to delay monetization plan to drive customeracquisition/adoption — which could be interpreted as either a positive or negative to ADBEthesis. Overall, while the quarter’s result and guide were good, ADBE faces more near-termoverhangs, which makes the stock even more of a show-me story. Close Date11 Jun 2026ADBE Close Price (USD)218.80Price Target (USD)379.00Upside/(Downside)73%52-Week Range416.39/218.09SPX7,394.30FYENovDiv YieldNAMarket Cap (USD) (M)88,439EV (USD) (M)88,205 Stepping back from the results, we see these transitions provide Adobe a good opportunityfor a reset. 1) A new management (CEO, CFO) team in near future will have the opportunity tosignificantly change product and go-to-market strategy. 2) ADBE’s plan to trade near-termvalue for volume is also a positive step for long-term health of the business. While one canalso argue that this is a sign of competitive pressure, it will likely take time to prove out. Overall, the near term uncertainties might make it difficult for investors to see Adobe’s long-term value. As such Adobe remains a show-me story that is ripe for a reset. However, webelieve Adobe can still deliver stable financials results in the near-term, This, coupled withwashed out multiple and the buyback program at hand, limits the downside risk. Investment Implications Adobe ($379 PT, Outperform)ADBE is in the midst of a transition with 1) CEO+CFOtransition, 2) change in monetization/pricing strategy, and 3) AI disruption risk. Theseoverhangs cap the potential for significant near-term rebound, but presents the opportunityfor a major reset and value unlock. Healthy financials, washed out valuation and buybacklimit downside risk. We lowered our price target from $447 to $379 as we roll forward ourestimates and lower target multiple from 15x to 12x to reflect increased uncertainties andthe step-down in peer group valuation. Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. VALUATION COMPS TABLE DETAILS Adobe delivered a clean quarter, not only beat but beat above the high end of street expectation range, and guided above ourexpectations on revenue (preview). However, the stock was down 5% after market as 1) CFO, Dan Durn, announced departureat the end of the week; 2) Adobe is changing strategies in Creative Cloud and doubling down on freemium models to attract newusers, which will temporarily negatively impact ARR growth, as reflected in the FY total ending ARR growth guide. To recap, Adobe’s Q2 earnings could be defined as a tale of 3 stories: •The management change is going to be bigger and more impactful than originally thought as both the CEO and CFO arereplaced at roughly the same time. This will allow potentially a major change in the product and go-to-market direction anddisclosures (and area of complaint we have heard), •The company is pivoting to driving seats over revenue in the near term. The company is delaying their “line optimization” (inwhich they were going to change product packaging and increase pricing to capture additional revenue), and doubling downon freemium models with their AI first products (Firefly, Express, Acrobat Assistant) in order to drive far more uses/usage.They believe that over time, similar to Adobe Acrobat and the original Creative Cloud, they can monetize a much larger userbase. •The 2Q results themselves were relatively clean and solid with the only area of complaint being the guided FY ARR growthexcluding the SEMRush acquisition. But ARR is being impacted near term by the pivot to driving seats over immediatemonetization. All in, this quarter does not dispel the SaaS Apocalypse concern which is plaguing the broader SaaS basket including Adobe.The uncertainty from management transition would not help short term either. As such Adobe remains a show-me story, but webelieve it is almost ripe for a reset. Moreover, we are also confident that Adobe can deliver stable financials results in the near-term, and coupled with washed out multiple and the buyback program they have at hand, limits the downside risk. For the stock to ultimately inflect, Adobe needs to 1) have new management in place; 2) provide proper communication onstrategic direction going forward; and 3) validate the direction they are taking is long-term accretive. KEY HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE QU