辉瑞：2026年第一季度总结 - 开局稳健，Vynda增加确定性，但临床读数仍存疑问

Courtney Breen+1 917 344 8407courtney.breen@bernsteinsg.com Woody Polglase+1 917 344 8314woody.polglase@bernsteinsg.com RatingMarket-Perform Louisa Qiu+1 917 344 8495louisa.qiu@bernsteinsg.com Price Target Specialist Sales PFE 30.00 USD Christian Moore+1 917 344 8555christian.moore@bernsteinsg.com Pfizer: 1Q26 wrap - Solid start, Vynda adds surety, but questionson clinical readouts remain Pfizer reported 1Q earningson Tuesday (see our quick take here), beating consensuson revenue ($14.5B, +6% v cons $13.8B) and EPS ($0.75, +16% v cons $0.72). Despitethe strong Q1 performance, they maintained their full year revenue guide, mitigating somerisk for the Covid franchise. This note aims to detail what we learned on the earnings call,supplemented with insights from our call-back with IR & updates to our model. Close Date5 May 2026PFE Close Price (USD)26.45Price Target (USD)30.00Upside/(Downside)13%52-Week Range28.75/21.97SPX7,259.22FYEDecDiv Yield6.5%Market Cap (USD) (M)150,750EV (USD) (M)202,433 This year continues to be about about Pfizer walking the tight-rope of commitments theyhave already made (SGN, Metsera, PD1xVEGF) with limited firepower for any furthersupplement to pipeline or R&D plans. Their BD envelope now stands at $7B, with the $1.65Bof proceeds from Viiv. Additionally, this quarter came with news of settlements for Vyndamaxpatents in the US - extending exclusivity until July 2031 & a more rosy LT view from PFEmgmt on HSD growth from ‘29-33 (see Exhibit 1). Soon we’ve got ASCO & ADA - both will be insightful for PFE’s trajectory ahead as we getmore details on VESPER-3, PF4044 (PD1xVEGF) - incl in combo with chemo, and SV. Wewill be closely watching trial schema details (esp. VESPER-6 & SV 1L NSCLC allcomers), trialinitiations & enrollment status to try and get more (or less) confidence on the developmentchoices that Pfizer are making. We update our model to reflect higher Eliquis revenues expected for the year, and lowercovid expectations - these changes net out at +400m revenue ($61.2B FY26E vs guide of$59.5B-$62.5B) for the year, but lower on EPS ($2.92, vs $3.00 prior) due to gross marginchanges. Our take:PFE have started the year with sold Q1 performance (& an important settlement)& a relatively derisked guide for the remainder of the year (we have baked in conservativescenarios for COVID). The real focus though remains on the big investments & seeing thesechoices play out. Clinical development progress & choices on dosing/frequency & trialschema will be closely watched this year. Investment Implications We rate PFE Market-Perform with a target price of $30 DETAILS STOCK PERFORMANCE Pfizer shares were up modestly at ~0.6% on the day of the 1Q26 earnings release, despite a clean beat on quarterly revenueand adjusted EPS. The muted reaction suggests investors remained focused on the forward outlook rather than the strengthof the print. While management’s reaffirmed dividend commitment was reassuring, attention is focused on upcoming ADA andASCO readouts for data on the Metsera obesity assets and sigvotatug vedotin (SV) & the PD1xVEGF. HOW DID THE QUARTER GO Pfizer delivered a solid Q1’26 beat on both revenue and EPS, mainly driven by strength in Eliquis, Oncology Biosimilars, Padcev,and Nurtec while partially offset by sharper-than-expected COVID erosion. Reported revenues of $14.5bn beat consensusby ~6%, while adj. EPS of $0.75 beat by ~16%. Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance across all metrics (revenue $59.5–62.5bn; adj. EPS $2.80–3.00). Upside surprises vs. consensus •Eliquis (+12% vs. cons.): Beat expectations on stronger than anticipated global demand, but partially offset by internationalmarkets remaining pressured by generic entry and price erosion •Oncology biosimilars (+56% vs. cons.): A significant beat driven by favorable U.S. net pricing and supply recovery, butsome of the strength reflected one-time dynamics •Abrysvo (+31% vs. cons.): Benefited from a lower returns provision in the U.S. and continued international launch uptake,despite softer overall vaccination rates in the US and unfavorable deliveries timing for the maternal indication internationally •Nurtec ODT/Vydura (+18% vs. cons.): Upside was driven by strong demand across acute and preventive use, favorableone-time net pricing in the US, and international launches. Company continues to expect continued growth for the oral CGRPmarket as oral CGRP penetration is still well below triptan usage. Only ~60% of triptan writers currently prescribe an oralCGRP, leaving meaningful runway. •Padcev (+10% vs. cons.): Strength reflected continued market share gains in first-line la/mUC and contribution from MIBClaunch momentum, reinforced by positive EV-303 and EV-304 data. •Xeljanz (+35% vs. cons.): Favorable net price in the U.S., drove the upside which was partially offset by weakerinternational demand trends. Xeljanz is expected to lose patent protection in June 2026. •Lorbrena (+15% vs. cons.):Outperfor