豪华邮轮专题报告：精致生活的新潮流

Cruise: The Finer Tide of Life. Luxury Ocean Cruise Primer While our long term view of the overall cruise industry is a constructive one, the Luxurysegment faces the most pronounced demographic and structural demand tailwinds in cruise.An increasingly wealthy, higher-earning and older consumer with more leisure time is mostimpactful to the top end of the market, while slowing luxury hotel supply growth is a keytailwind. To play these structural trends, Viking is the only scaled pure play.Viking has carvedout a powerful niche - differentiated from the opulent offerings of Regent or high-end hotelbranded yachts. Viking’s focus on ‘the thinking person’, with onboard historians and culturalenrichment are unique to the brand, driving a pricing premium and powerful brand moat.Demand drivers mean we expect it can comfortably keep up with supply growth, driving acompelling earnings algorithm riding on the rising luxury cruise tide. Richard J. Clarke, FCA+44 20 7676 6850richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.com Niall Mitchelson+44 20 7676 7144niall.mitchelson@bernsteinsg.com Lasith Siriwardana+44 20 7550 2191lasith.siriwardana@bernsteinsg.com All aboard - the strongest tailwinds in Cruise.There are 2 key demand drivers for theLuxury segment in cruise:(1)An older, wealthier, and higher-earning US consumer - Cruiseis done by older consumers, but this is particularly true in Luxury, with an average age of63. This demographic is set to continue to outgrow the US population, and has grown itsshare of wealth - almost 75% of US household wealth is held by those over 55. This isturbocharged by an increasingly disparate US income profile, with the top quartile seeingthe most income growth, and the greatest increase in leisure time - supportive of Luxurytravel spend.(2)A lack of luxury hotel supply - rising construction, labor, and financing costshave stalled high-end hotel development, and Luxury cruise can benefit and capture thespill-over in demand. A vast horizon of differentiated options.While in the mainstream and premium brandsoften compete head to head, the Luxury segment features significantly more differentiation,and prices range from $500 to high 5 figure sums per night. Ship size is a key determinantof how much consumers are willing to pay for a luxury cruise - yachts offered by luxurytravel brands such as Orient Express and Aman with ~100 berths are priced in excess of$5,000 per night, whilst cruises aboard ~1,000 berth ships are ~$500 per night. However,brand power can buck this trend - Viking’s unique product enables it to price materiallyhigher than brands with similarly sized ships (i.e. Oceania). Viking has the wind in its sails.Offering(1)A differentiated brand able to charge pricessignificantly higher than competitors driven by Viking’s focus on enriching cruises, for anaffluent customer segment (55+ North Americans);(2)Leading luxury cruise capacitygrowth, with Viking ships >50% of the segment’s capacity growth through 2030, withgrowth allocated to higher yielding itineraries in Alaska / Scandinavia;(3)The design ofViking’s ocean ships enable the brand to add capacity at a very low cost per berth - similarto the cost to mainstream brands (~$0.5m/berth) but with significantly higher yields. Leaving branded yachts in its wake.The yacht experience is different to traditional luxurycruise; itineraries focus on locations which are difficult to access in for even small shipLuxury ocean liners (e.g. stops along the Croatian, Italian and French coastlines), featurelarge staterooms akin to luxury hotel rooms, and serve as a way to drive more touchpointswith their already established brands (Aman, Four Seasons, Orient Express). This is in sharpcontrast to the Viking’s ‘relaxed luxury’ approach - the focus on cultural enrichment ratherthan opulence means Viking competes for a very different customer base. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate Viking and Royal Caribbean Outperform, and Carnival and Norwegian Market-Perform. Table Of Contents The luxury cruise landscape.................................................................................................................................................................................................3A range of luxury options...............................................................................................................................................................................................3Ship size is a key determinant of price..................................................................................................................................................................... 3The luxury cruise segment has seen little change................................................................................................................................................4Differentiation in the luxury Cruise segment..............................................................................................