SOLV Energy：阳光相伴，利润率上行，买入评级，目标价43美元

USA | ElectricalSOLV Energy Equity ResearchJune 1, 2026 Sunny with a Chance of Higher Margins; Reit.Buy, $43 PT Raise ests ~1-3% on stronger margins/rev visibility post 1Q beat + guide raise.FY26 adj. GM 17.5% above cons at 16.2% and top end of guide at 17.0%; EBITDA$456Mn modestly above guide. Solar view unchanged; PRIM reads limited:issues are discrete to them, not macro. Further upward cons est revisions likely.Yes, premium, but can be a core Clean energy holding as liquidity improves.Valuation now the debate, but see MWH alongside NXT as leader. Raise PT to$43. Raise estimates ~1-3% to reflect stronger margin confidence and revenue visibility.FY26revenue now high end of guide & 1.2% above cons, while adj. GM of 17.5% above Street at 16.2%and the high end of guide at 17.0%; FY26 EBITDA of $456Mn modestly above the $435–455Mnguide. We still embed a solar installation divot in FY29/30 as tax-credit-driven urgency fades, but seestronger near-term margin durability than Street, supporting higher-for-longer profitability throughFY26–28 before normalization. Margins still underappreciated; expect further estimate revisions.Tight EPC capacity and speed-to-market demand from SH deadlines & hyperscale load growth allow reputable platforms tocapture premium pricing. Mgmt reports overperformance, does not forecast it.Further consestimate revisions risk to the upside as execution holds. Give MWH credit this cycle on fixed-price; whiletypically viewed as downside risk, also creates upside when bid well and executed ahead of plan. Solar view unchanged through 2028; PRIM read-through limited.No broad change in utility-scale solar deployment – tariff volatility a procurement variable to watch, permitting more location-specific than systemic. MWH backlog at $8.2Bn with limited federal permitting exposure - did notflag delays, cost pressure on portfolio; footprint skewed SW / TX flatland with fewer subsurfacecomplications.PRIM reset shows equity value tied to track record; premium E&Cs could see furtherbooking demand and bid margin accretion. PWR / MTZ renewables growth confirm sector not structurallyimpaired. Expect valuation debate to heat up fromhere - market rewarding SOLV as a capital-light platform rather than a traditional laborcontractor, despite CCGT (AGX) & electrical(FIX/PWR) craft labor generally being morespecialized. Lifecycle story broadens via O&M scale + grid-adjacent tuck-ins.O&M fleet to ~22GW from 20GW+, with revenue opportunity to ~$8.1Bn from $7.4Bn and only ~$600Mn in backlog. See continuedfocus on grid adjacencies with net cash position; RWE adds utility relationships and substation /HV deployment. ~$1.95Bn of backlog tied to standalone / hybrid storage - see BESS upside albeitwith lesser $ scope.Solar / storage EPC likely remains core, grid scope broadening. FY (Dec)2025A2026E2027E2028ERev. (MM)2,490.53,817.34,203.34,432.2EBITDA (MM)341.7455.6486.2490.8EV/Rev2.7x1.8x1.6x1.5xP/Rev2.9x1.9x1.7x1.6xValuation now the debate; see SOLV as core solar benchmark holding.Shares re-rated closerto broader EPC peers and solar-growth names like NXT; see investor demand for investable solarplatform with credible management and execution.Raise to $43 PTon blend of EV/EBITDA, FCFyield, and DCF, now applying 10% premium to peers vs prior 10% discount, with terminal exit yieldraised to 4.0% from 8.0%, reflecting greater confidence in O&M, repowering, storage, and grid-adjacent lifecycle revenues. Julien Dumoulin-Smith * | Equity Analyst+1 (281) 774-2066 | jds@jefferies.com Paul Zimbardo * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8497 | pzimbardo@jefferies.com Luke Fenker * | Equity Associate+1 (713) 308-4523 | lfenker@jefferies.com Brian Russo, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8559 | brusso@jefferies.com Tanner James, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8667 | tjames@jefferies.com The Long View: SOLV Energy Investment Thesis MWH looks set up for meaningful upside through 2028, with solar demandaccelerating and tight contracting that should lock in higher margins vs peers.Its concentrated, fixed-price exposure introduces meaningful cyclicality riskbut M&A and a strong net cash position provide an actionable path to diversifyand smooth the risk profile. Our constructive view is anchored on: (1) backlog nearly doubling year-over-year ($8bn in FY25) provides 2027 revenue visibility; (2) staged LNTPs andnegotiating leverage now bake risk into pricing, supporting higher-for longermargins; (3) M&A signals intent to smooth post-2028 cyclicality. Margin quality and M&A flexibility are unique. Late decade risk is real, but M&Aexpansion creates buffer. Base Case,$43, +21% Upside Scenario,$55, +55% Downside Scenario,$31, -13% Accretive M&A diversifies SOLV’s revenue mixas solar demand remains durable, supported byhyperscalerload growth and O&M expansion.Higher attach rates and scale advantages supportsteadier earnings and incremental market sharegains. The upside case assumes a 0.5% premiumto the base FCF yield, a +2