小米集团：第一季度营收全面超预期且利润率高于预期；重申增持评级，目标价45美元

20252026NewConsOldNewCons2.06A0.37E1.93E2.61E0.43E1.92E0.36E2.26E2.51E0.48E1.86E0.38E2.21E2.28E0.53E2.18E0.41E2.51E2.57E0.54E8.02E1.50E8.90E9.97E1.93E30.124.2Restricted - External Earnings ReviewXIACYChina TechnologyPrice TargetPrice (27-May-25)Potential Upside/DownsideSource: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchMarket Cap (USD mn)Shares Outstanding (mn)Free Float (%)52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)Dividend Yield (%)Return on Equity TTM (%)Current BVPS (USD)Source: BloombergPrice PerformanceExchange-NYSE52 Week rangeUSD 39.66-9.60Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive chartingChina TechnologyJiong Shao, CFA+1 212 526 5562jiong.shao@barclays.comBCI, USLian Xiu (Roger) Duan+1 212 526 4633lianxiu.duan@barclays.comBCI, USXinyao Song+1 212 526 6972xinyao.song@barclays.comBCI, US Change y/y2025202661%27%57%31%51%23%33%18%50%24% 1Q25 Earnings UpdateFinancialsRevenue:Xiaomi reported total revenue of RMB 111.3bn, maintaining robust growth at 47.3%yoy, 339bps higher than our estimate. Specifically, smartphone revenue was RMB 50.6bn, up8.9% yoy, accompanied by 41.8mn shipments (+3% yoy) and record high ASP of RMB 1,211 (+6%yoy). IoT segment revenue was RMB 32.3bn, accelerating growth to 58.7% yoy. Internet servicesrevenue was RMB 9.1bn, up 12.8% yoy. EV and other initiatives revenue was RMB 18.6bn.Gross margin:Group gross margin was 22.8%, +158bps vs our estimate. Specifically,smartphone GM sequentially increased to 12.4%, IoT GM sequentially improved to 25.2%, andInternet services GM sequentially improved to 76.9%.EV, AI and other initiatives:Xiaomi delivered 75,869 units of SU7 in 1Q, in line with ourexpectation. ASP increased to RMB 238k due to SU7 Ultra and product mix. Segment grossmargin increased to 23.2%. Adj. net loss (excl. SBC) narrowed to -RMB 0.2bn, indicating a netmargin of -1.1%, significantly narrowed from -4.4% in 4Q.OPEX and net income:S&M and G&A were slightly higher than our estimates while R&D waslower than expectations. Adj. net income was RMB 10.7bn with margin of 9.6%, 100bps higherthan our estimate. Adj. net income excl. the EV segment was RMB 10.9bn with a margin of 9.8%.Share repurchase:In 1Q, Xiaomi repurchased 6.8mn ordinary shares worth about HKD224.9mn ($28.7mn). 3 FIGURE 1. Actual vs estimatesSource: Company data, Barclays Research estimates28 May 2025Barclays | Xiaomi Corporation Business UpdateSmartphoneXiaomi delivered 41.8mn (+3% yoy) smartphone units in 1Q, maintaining top three globalmarket share for nineteenth quarters at 14.1%. Notably in China, shipments rose 40% yoy,significantly outpacing industry's 5% and peers, reclaiming the No.1 market share position at18.8%aftera decade. This highlights strong consumer demand in its high-quality productsdespite intense competition in China. A key strategic focus remains on premiumization, whereXiaomi secured the largest share of 24.4% in the RMB 4,000-5,000 price bucket. Xiaomi 15 Ultralaunched in Feb achieved over 90% higher shipments vs last year's model. Rising domesticmarket share with higher ASP drove overall ASP to a record high this quarter at RMB 1,211.Beyond China, Xiaomi is optimizing product mix towards premium models in Europe, wheremarket share remained stable at 20%. The company has scaled back low-end shipments andpivoted toward high-end models. In emerging markets, Xiaomi continued to gain shares in mostmarkets and anticipated headroom going forward (e.g., aiming at 20% market share in Africa,up from the current 13%). Following these focus, management expected full year smartphoneshipments to approach 180mn.A major milestone is its in-house high-end SoC XRING O1 unveiled on May 22 with certainmetrics rivaling Apple's A18 chipset as we mentioned in earlier note. Management will prioritizeflagship SoCs rather than low/mid-end chipsets, and believes the SoC platform capabilitiescould be extended to other chips in the future. Again, XRING chips currently have limited impacton financials given its relatively small volume and five- to ten-year investment cycle.On the other hand, smartphone gross margin is more about the balance between overseasexpansion, high-end products, and BOM especially memory costs. Management estimatesmemory costs for high-end phones to bottom out and resume growth in 2Q, and 3Q couldobserve steady growth.EVEV delivered 75,869 units in 1Q with a surprisingly high gross margin of 23.2% - among the toptier global-wise if not the highest. GM is largely attributable to (1) superior product qualitydriving strong sales and lower amortized costs; (2) significant scaleeffectand costimprovement from the single blockbuster SU7 models; (3) enhanced management and supplychain; (4) higher-end SU7 Ultra with higher margins; and (5) hot selling accessories. Lookingahead, we see further upside to gross margins driven by high-end SU7 Ultra and the upcomingpremium SUV model YU7, slated for deliveries in July. Moreover, YU7 and SU7 share the samemanufacturing platform and YU7 can leverage SU7's existing supply chain, as