美国IT硬件行业Super Micro Computer Inc快速报告：70亿美元融资的解读

U.S. IT Hardware Super Micro Computer Inc April Li+1 917 344 8339april.li@bernsteinsg.com RatingMarket-Perform Phoebe Sun+1 917 344 8481phoebe.sun@bernsteinsg.com Price Target SMCI 37.00 USD Super Micro: What to make of this $7B capital raise? Today after market close, Super Micro announced a proposed $7 billion equity raise to fund$39 billion of AI server orders. Shares were down 7% post market at time of writing. SMCI’s proposed $7 billion equity raise is by far the highest equity raise in companyhistory, and implies a whopping 27% dilution.The last time SMCI raised equity its shareprice was $87.5 (stock split adjusted) andshares fell by 57% over the next 12 monthsandthat was for only 3% dilution (see Exhibits 1 & 2). Proceeds are to fund the purchase of components to satisfy the $39 billion of new AIserver orders.Put in context this $39 billion in orders is massive and even more than DELL’srecord $34 billion in AI server orders in FQ4’26, and is similar to SMCI’s entire FY2026revenue guide. Why do they need the cash?With SMCI’s ballooning working capital, and increasing debtlevels now reachingover 3x net debt leverage ratio(net debt/EBITDA) we can see whySMCI feels the need to raise money in preparation for more AI server orders. Are these AI server orders, actually “Orders”?This is the first time (to our knowledge) thecompany disclosed its AI server orders, but yet in the safe harbor statement it clearly statesthat these orders are “not firm commitments and are all subject to cancellation”andthus we believe these “orders” do not reach the level of how Dell defines “orders” which weunderstand is with a firm purchase order that is not cancelable. So while $39 billion in AIserver orders sounds massive we struggle to understand how real these orders really are. Forfurther context Dell reports, AI server revenue, orders and also discloses a “pipeline” number.The “pipeline” is multiples higher than the reported firm committed “orders”. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Super Micro Computer Inc We value Super Micro at 13.2x our FY27 EPS of $2.80= $37. RISKS Super Micro Computer Inc The biggest risks to the upside on SMCI and to our price target are that:1) Super Micro could leverage its initial traction in AIinto building out more established credibility in AI servers, along to sustain its success beyond first mover advantage. This wouldopen doors to sustained market share and revenue growth; 2) Any significant working capital improvements, could meaningfullyimprove free cash flow (and thus valuation). The biggest risk to the downside is: 3) Any new accounting issues or concerns aroundcircumventing US-China trade restrictions could cause a crisis in confidence. RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITY RATINGS DEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the AsiaPacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JPL) for stocks listed on the Japaneseexchanges, and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX) for stocks listed on the Asian(ex-Japan) exchanges -unless otherwise specified. The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings: •Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp •Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp •Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15 pp Coverage Suspended: Coverage of a company under the Bernstein research brand has been suspended. Ratings and price targetsare suspended temporarily, are no longer current, and should there