IT硬件行业：盈利增长路径清晰；上调STX和WDC的目标价

Clear path to higher earnings; Raising POfor STX and WDC Price Objective Change 27 April 2026 Scenario analysis shows meaningful upside to estimatesHard disk drive supply remains tight asmanufacturers are not adding unit capacity and EquityUnited StatesIT Hardware we see this as a structural change. As such, we continue to see demand exceedingsupply, and see continued scope for OEMs to raise prices. In this note, we run a scenarioanalysis to judge the earnings power for Seagate (STX) and Western Digital (WDC),individually, under various scenarios of nearline dollars per Terabyte ($/TB) growth. InFigures 1 and 2, for STX and WDC, respectively, we analyze how EPS for F28 can changeas we vary the 3-year CAGR for nearline $/TB (CY25-CY28) against various outcomes foroperating margin, while keeping nearline exabytes (EB) fixed for F28. We also apply a20x multiple to each EPS to see what that would imply for stock price. Reiterate Buy onWDC and STX. Wamsi MohanResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 3854wamsi.mohan@bofa.com Ruplu BhattacharyaResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 0315ruplu.bhattacharya@bofa.com STX– $45 EPS in C28 possible (not modeled), PO to $700 Aisling GrueningerResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 4273aisling.grueninger@bofa.com As shown in Fig 1, our C25 $/TB est for STX is $13 and we est C28 nearline shipmentsof 1.1 ZB (1130 EB). We also est C28 other HDD (non-nearline) rev of $4.3bn. Weanalyze what EPS for C28 would be at various combinations of 3-year nearline $/TBgrowth CAGR (C25-C28) and OM. We est that the current stock price of around $587factors in a C28 EPS of $29 (derived using nearline $/TB CAGR of 4% and C28 OM of47%) and assuming a 20x multiple (which we see appropriate for the growth and marginprofile of STX). But, in a bull case, we see the potential for EPS of $45 ($/TB reaching$20 in C28 with a 3-year $/TB CAGR of 16% and OM of 55%). We raise our PO to $700(from $605) on 29x (prior 25x) C27 EPS of $23.92. We leave our ests unchanged, butincorporate the potential upside by using a higher multiple. Our new PO of $700 factorsin a nearline $/TB 3-year CAGR of 8%, OM of 51%. Ryan Seungin ChoiResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 743 0587ryan.choi2@bofa.com WDC– $33 EPS in C28 possible (not modeled), PO to $495 As shown in Fig2, our C25 $/TB est. for WDC is $14 and we currently est C28 nearlineshipments of 1.4 ZB (1396 EB). We also est C28 other HDD (non-nearline) rev of $2.0bn.We then analyze what EPS for C28 would be at various combinations of 3-year nearline$/TB growth CAGR (C25-C28) and OM. We est that the current stock price of around$400 factors in a C28 EPS of about $20 (derived using nearline $/TB CAGR of 0% (nogrowth) and C28 OM of 45%) and assuming a 20x multiple (which we see appropriatefor the growth and margin profile of WDC). But, in a bull case, we see the potential forEPS of $33 ($/TB reaching $20 in C28 with a 3-year CAGR of 12% and OM of 55%). Weraise our PO to $495 (from $415) on 29x (prior 25x) C27 EPS of $16.89. We leave ourests unchanged, but incorporate the potential upside by using a higher multiple. Our newPO of $495 factors in a nearline $/TB 3-year CAGR of 4%, OM of 51%. Abbreviations: SBC: Stock-based compensationTB: TerabytesEB: ExabytesHAMR: Heat Assisted Magnetic RecordingOEM: Original Equipment Manufacturer Factors benefiting both companiesVisibility is improving for both companies as they institute long-term contracts. HAMR helps drive higher exabyte shipments with the same number of hard drive units. HAMRalso helps drive lower cost per TB as more exabytes are stored using the same numberof heads and media. The market remains an oligopoly (with three OEMs providing harddisk drives) and we see low threat of new entrants coming into the market. Timestamp: 27 April 2026 05:01AM EDT Scenario analysis Exhibit1:Stocks mentionedPrices and ratings for stocks mentioned in this report Price objective basis & risk Seagate Technology (STX)Our PO of $700 is based on 29x our C2027E EPS estimate of $23.92. This multiple is at the high-end of its historical P/E range of 7x-29x, with median 12x, and is warranted inour view as demand continues to outpace supply, pricing continues to go higher, andpeak earnings can be higher than historical peaks. The multiple balances near-termheadwinds against the return of a more rational HDD industry and return to revenue andEPS growth. Downside risks to our price objective are: (1) any slowdown in cloud/data centerspending, (2) worse than expected industry pricing, (3) increased usage of NAND flashvs. hard disk drives, (4) share loss to WDC in the enterprise HDD market, (5) further unitdeclines in desktops and notebooks, and (6) degradation of cash position and potentialviolation of credit facility covenants. Upside risks are: (1) higher than expected demandfor HAMR drives, (2) better mix of high capacity/nearline HDDs, which could drive ASPsand gross margin higher, (3) improved technological advantage and total cost ofownership bene