印度汽车：巴贾吉 vs 埃舍尔 - 350cc之战重燃？

Indian Autos: Bajaj vs Eicher - The 350cc battle redrawn? Can Bajaj Triumph create as a large a business as Royal Enfield now that both competein the 350 cc segment? A critical question as Indian market is not deep enough toaccommodate multiple players in that segment. Our thoughts in this report. Venugopal Garre+65 6326 7643venugopal.garre@bernsteinsg.com Bajaj Triumph was positioned in the 400cc segment trying to build a new sub category inthe premium motorcycle segment but the GST cuts on sub-350cc motorcycles pushedBajaj to migrate its Triumph lineup from 398cc to 349cc, placing it in the same enginesegment as Royal Enfield. Param Shah+91 226 842 1417param.shah@bernsteinsg.com Triumph’s FY24-FY26 attempt didn’t materialize not because the RE buyer consideredthe product and walked away. It failed because the price gap was wide enough that mostbuyers never seriously evaluated it in the first place. At INR50-80k above the Hunterand Classic 350, Triumph sat outside the comparison set entirely. The question of buyerpreference - thump vs performance, community vs specification, Royal Enfield’s cultvs Triumph’s heritage - was never genuinely tested. And the 349cc migration has notanswered it either, because prices have not moved dramatically enough to force a realdecision. What it has done is place Triumph in the same category, same displacement asRoyal Enfield and prices narrowing a bit. While being in the conversation is the necessarycondition for winning, it is not the sufficient one. Our dealer visits gave us a ground-level picture of where Triumph stands today. Theshowroom experience is genuinely premium - black interior, amber lighting, well-trainedsalespeople who speak fluently about specification and warranty. Royal Enfield’s studioscarry the same cult aesthetic. However, RE’s demand is unambiguous - 3 month waitingperiods on standard models, 45-60 days on make-to-order at a INR5-6k premium, a plantrunning near capacity. Triumph is delivering within forty-eight hours. The two showroomsare not yet playing the same game. One is managing demand. The other is building it. What Triumph does well is identifiable. The product is superior on measurable criteria -more power, a 5-year warranty against RE’s 3 years standard, a 16k kms service intervalthat the salesperson cites as the most generous in the segment (vs 7-10k kms forothers). Local manufacturing in Pune has addressed the spare parts anxiety that plaguedthe Triumph’s CBU era. Cross-shopping is real and new - RE’s Hunter salespeople areincreasingly hearing the Triumph name in conversations. Among young, urban, self-funded,first-time premium buyers, Triumph’s case is coherent and increasingly audible. What Triumph has not yet solved is equally clear. Beyond the top 8-10 cities, it is largelyabsent:~150 outlets versus Royal Enfield’s ~2,100 leaving Tier-2 India, which drives~40-45% of RE’s volumes, mostly unaddressed. Service network anxiety has easedin metros but remains a barrier elsewhere. The resale market is thin and opaque. Moreimportantly, Royal Enfield’s grip on the Classic and Bullet buyer- rooted in community, habit,and cultural identity is not easily disrupted by better specifications. The path to winning,therefore, is explicit. Triumph needs distribution at scale, especially in Tier-2 markets, totranslate participation into share. It needs the Bonneville 350 (to be launched probablythis festive) to prove it can compete on emotion, not just engineering. And it needs Bajaj tocommit for the long term. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate Bajaj Auto asOutperformand have aMarket-Performon Eicher Motors. Bajaj's 2W premium franchise has morecredibility today than at any point in the last decade. Triumph now competes in the same engine segment as that of RoyalEnfield's, with a globally recognized brand, on a fully amortised platform. Eicher is a franchise that remains largely intact but is,for the first time, under competitive environment in a segment it has owned without contest. It’s still early days for Triumph but itappears to have the ingredients for success and capture a large share of the market - and someone will then lose. The verdict isnot yet out - as it needs scaling up products, distribution presence and deep management commitment. DETAILS TRIUMPH IN INDIA - A DECADE OF TRYING Triumph Motorcycles (Now in a partnership with Bajaj in India) arrived in India in 2013, initially as a completely built-up importCBU units assembled in the UK and Thailand, landed at Indian ports, sold to a wealthy niche buyer through a handful of premiumdealerships. The positioning was unambiguously aspirational: Bonneville T100s, Tigers, Thunderbirds, priced in INR millions. Itwas largely a brand-establishment play - building awareness and credibility among the upper segment of Indian riders beforethe volume market became addressable. Triumph India in this phase had perhaps 20-30 dealerships and volumes that wouldhave been roundin