日本与欧盟半导体研究

Japan/EU Semi Taiwan Import Tracker (May 26): SPE import +23%YoY MOF Taiwan released May 2026 semiconductor equipment import data on June 10th.We have extracted and analyzed relevant information that has strong significance for David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com our coverage companies.The relevant Taiwan SPE import data can be downloaded here:Taiwan SPE Import. Juho Hwang+852 2123 2632juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com SPE import +23% YoY, -8% MoM.Overall, Taiwan semi equipment imports YoY in Maywas +23% globally / +6% from Japan. MoM shows another slight decline from April —globally -8% and -17% from Japan. 3-month moving average is up +10% for global, and+6% for Japan SPE. The strong capex from Taiwan foundry continues to drive strong YoYgrowth, which supports our positive view on Japan / EU SPE. Carmine Milano, CFA+44 20 7762 1857carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.com Jack Lin+852 2123 2683jack.lin@bernsteinsg.com MoM increase in Tester import.Advantest SoC tester revenue is highly correlated to theTaiwan tester import data which was up +7% MoM, and +34% YoY. 3-month average was+4% MoM. Our regression analysis suggests +6% QoQ for Advantest Taiwan sales with 2-month data, which suggests slight upside to consensus JunQ revenue of +3% QoQ. TW litho imports were €543mn in May, down 38% MoM but up 21% YoY (vs May2025). On a quarterly basis, imports in the first two months of the quarter (April andMay) were up ~80% QoQ. This was largely driven by the very strong April import, the third-highest monthly level on record, especially given the first month of the quarter is typicallyseasonally weaker. Our regression based on 2-month imports estimates TW quarterlysystem sales for ASML of €2.33bn, rising 61% QoQ and 19% YoY. This implies that Taiwan Another MoM decline for TEL.The Taiwan import data for the relevant categories toTEL (CVD, dry etching, cleaning, coater & developer, RTP, etc.) suggests a weak May for TEL’s Taiwan revenue. May single-month was down -19% MoM, and up +7% YoY; 3-monthmoving average was +3% sequentially. Our regression suggests -24% QoQ for TEL’s JunQTaiwan revenue with a downside to consensus of flat QoQ. Cleaning equipment recovers.Taiwan cleaner import data is +11% MoM and +14% YoY.3-month moving average is +14% sequentially. Our regression suggests -11% QoQ forScreen’s JunQ Taiwan revenue, in-line with consensus. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rateAdvantest(PT=¥39,200),Tokyo Electron(PT=¥59,200), andASML(PT=€1,700.00) Outperform. We rateScreen(PT=¥12,600) Market-Perform. DETAILS TAIWAN SEMI EQUIPMENT IMPORT OVERALL •Taiwan semi equipment import in May 2026 declined MoM once again from an exceptionally strong March but still continuedstrength, with YoY growth of +23% globally / +6% YoY from Japan; MoM was -10% globally and -16% from Japan (Exhibit 1, •3-month moving average MoM was up +13% globally and +13% from Japan. ADVANTEST — TAIWAN TESTER IMPORT DATA •Advantest SoC tester revenue is highly correlated to the Taiwan tester import (Exhibit 4). TW import of testers in May fromJapan and Malaysia was collectively +7% MoM and +34% YoY. 3-month average data is +4% MoM (Exhibit 3). •Our regression indicates a JunQ Taiwan sales for Advantest of +6% QoQ (Exhibit 5, Exhibit 6), with slight upside vs.consensus JunQ revenue of +3% QoQ. ASML — TAIWAN IMPORT DATA •TW litho imports were €543mn in May, down 38% MoM but up 21% YoY (vs May 2025). On a quarterly basis, imports in thefirst two months of the quarter (April and May) were up ~80% QoQ. This was largely driven by the very strong April import,the third-highest monthly level on record, especially given the first month of the quarter is typically seasonally weaker. As •Taiwan's 2M lithography import data shows a good correlation with ASML’s Taiwan system sales, with an R² of 75%. Ourregression based on 2-month imports indicates Taiwan quarterly system sales for ASML of €2.33bn, rising 61% sequentiallyand 19% YoY. This implies that Taiwan will account for 37% of the overall system sales, which are expected to reachapproximately €6.32bn in Q2 —up from 23% last quarter and from 34% in Q2 2025. Taiwan lithography demand appears to EXHIBIT 7:Monthly Taiwan litho Imports and ASML's Taiwan system sales divided by 3 have historically shown aquite solid correlation.April TW litho imports was €543mn, down 38% MoM from April but up 21% YoY versus EXHIBIT 8:TW’s 2M litho import data shows a strongcorrelation with ASML’s system sales in Taiwan, withan R² of 75%. Based on €1.42bn of TW litho imports inApril and May, our regression estimates ASML’s Taiwan EXHIBIT 9:The predicted system sales from Taiwan,at €2.33bn, represent a 61% QoQ increase and and up19% on an annual basis. This implies that Taiwan will EXHIBIT 10:Based on our regression model, ASML TW system sales should reach €2.33bn in Q2, up 61%sequentially and 18% YoY. This would represent the second-strongest quarter on record for ASML TW systemsale