印度资本市场：共同基金净流入放缓超预期； SIP保持稳定，但我们处于时间窗口

Indian Capital Markets: Net flows into mutual funds soften morethan expectations; SiPs hold up, but we are on a clock inflows into active-equity/hybrid mutual funds stood at INR 278 Bn for May-26, -41%month-on-month ('m/m) (Exhibit 1). This is a sharper fall than our-15% m/m expectations(Exhibit 2). The decline in net flows comes from a sharp fall in gross lump-sum inflows(-29%)and a modestincrease in redemptions (+7%) in May-26 (Exhibit 3, Exhibit 4).SiPflows(INR309Bn,-1%m/m)remainstableinvalueterms (volumedatanotyetavailable)Keytakeaways. +912268421446manas.agrawal@bernsteinsg.com +91 226 842 1452himank.sangai@bernsteinsg.com 1.Netflowscontract, but some context: May-26 sawnetflows into active-equity/hybridmutual funds at INR 278 Bn (-41% m/m).The drag in net flows can be attributed to weakergross lump-sum inflows (-29%m/m).Total inflows dropped by~19% m/m, while SIPs werestable(-1%m/m).Grossredemptionswereup+7%m/m.Theweakernetflowstrendsandthe gross inflows/redemptionstrendswereobservedacross segments. For some context,flows are+15%YoY(May-25 was also a period ofweak flows),andMar-26and Apr-26 were strong months as investors boughtthedip. 2. SIPs remain stable, for now: SIP flows (in value terms) remain stable despite ~20months of underwhelming returns. It will be interesting to see the volume data (new SiPaccounts,cancellation,etc.)once available. Webelieve SiPs are a structural habit that will persist across cycles.However, weakmarkets can lead to near-term turbulence if markets do not deliver returns in the next 12months (more on this below). 3. Markets are on a clock to generate returns:The 2-yr returns already look poor acrosssegments and further weakness will erode 3-yr returns. While ~75% of SIP investors havemaintained/increased their SiPs till now, our proprietary survey indicates that~37% willreconsider their SiP allocations if they do not make money over the next year (Exhibit 5 toExhibit 8). Werate HDFC AMC and ICICI Pru AMC Outperform.We rateNipponAMC as Market-Perform. themedium-term.We can howeverforesee see near-term turbulence from weak market sentiment.We remain constructive ongrowth forthe industry on a cross-cycle basis. EXHIBIT1:ActiveEquityNetFlowsSummary:May-26 corresponding change in NAVs to calculate daily scheme-level flows (Net Flows(t)= AuM(t) (AuM(t-1)(NAV(t)/ NAV(t-1). AMFI data is generally accurate but maySource: AMFI, Bernstein estimates and analysis References to"Bernstein" or theFirm" in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2o24onwards)，SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司，SanfordC.Bernstein(Canada)Limited，SanfordSanfordC.BernsteinJapanKK（7才一下·C·八一个株式会社）andanalystsemployedbySocieteGeneraleAfrica Technologies &Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement inplace between Bernsteinand Societe Generale. otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures,references to Bernstein's“affiliates"relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. treasury income on surplus capital carried in the business. We then add back the surplus capital to the value of the business(AuM)andthe Return on Equity (ROE)of thebusiness. Weuse the historicalforward earnings multiple ofthe business as aguardrailforour valuation. WevalueICICI Prudential AMC at INR 3,500 per share,reflecting a 39xmultiple on our forward core-earnings estimates(FY28E)ora 37xmultiple on ourFY28reported (un-adjusted) earnings estimates.Thevaluation premium forICiCI Prudential AMC relativeto peers is accounting for a lower mix of treasury income, a more consistent execution towards fund performance, flows, andcommission controls &itslargeralternatives business. HDFCAssetManagementCoLtd We value Asset Managers based on their forward core-earnings multiple.Core-earnings referto profits,without accounting fortreasury income on surplus capital carried in the business. We then add back the surplus capital to the value of the business(AuM)andthe Return on Equity (ROE)of thebusiness.We usethehistoricalforward earnings multiple ofthe business as a guardrailfor our valuation. We value HDFC AMC at INR 2,890 per share, reflecting a 39.9x multiple on our forward core-earnings estimates (FY28E), or a34.9x multiple on our FY28 reported (un-adjusted) earnings estimates. This translates to a 41.2x multiple on our FY27 earningsestimates. Nippon LifeIndiaAssetManagementLtd We value Asset Managers based on their forward core-earnings multiple. Core-earnings refer to profits,without accounting fortreasury income on surplus capital carried in the business. We then add back the surplus capital to the value of the business(AuM)and the Return on Equity (ROE)of the business. We use the historical forward earnings multiple of the business as a guardrailfor our valuation. We value Nippon Life Indian AMC at INR 880 p