最好的时代，最坏的时代：如何在不断变化的阶级动态与美国K型经济中投资

Best of Times, Worst of Times: How to invest amidst shiftingclass dynamics and the US K-shaped economy “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times”. The famous opening line of CharlesDickens’ ‘A Tale of Two Cities’ captures a period of contradiction: the French aristocracyindulging in opulence and privilege, the peasantry experiencing poverty and oppression. Nadine Sarwat, CFA+44 20 7676 6849nadine.sarwat@bernsteinsg.com While 2026 is thankfully not 18thcentury France, shifting class dynamics remain moretopical than ever, from the US K-shaped economy to the squeezed Chinese middle class. Inthis note, we examine the changes in how high- vs. low-income Americans spend their timeand money over the last two decades and what it means for investing today. Trevor Stirling+44 20 7676 7521trevor.stirling@bernsteinsg.com Danilo Gargiulo+1 917 344 8475danilo.gargiulo@bernsteinsg.com US income and wealth inequality is rising; the US is experiencing a K-shapedeconomy. A smaller share of the population controls income earned and health vs. twodecade ago. Consumer confidence, especially low and middle income, has collapsed. Alexia Howard+1 917 344 8453alexia.howard@bernsteinsg.com Time is money. And money talks.Our analysis leverages two rich and long-runningdatabases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.(1)The American Time Use Surveycovers 7,700 nationally representative individuals and examines how they spend theirtime across distinct activities.(2)The Consumer Expenditure Survey examines averagehousehold expenditure across specific products and services. Callum Elliott, CFA, ACA+44 20 7676 7183callum.elliott@bernsteinsg.com William Woods+44 20 7676 6806william.woods@bernsteinsg.com Over the last two decades, high-income Americans are spending less time on workand more on leisure; it’s the reverse for low-income. This trend is amplified whenlooking at the last five years only. Within leisure, in 2024 high-income Americans overindexto socializing, reading and participation in sports & exercise. Low-income overindex towatching TV, playing games/computer and general relaxation. Looking at thechangein thelast five years, high-income Americas spent incremental leisure time on playing games/computer, general relaxation, reading and sports & exercise. Lost leisure time for low-income has mainly come from watching TV, sports & exercise and reading. Aneesha Sherman+1 917 344 8457aneesha.sherman@bernsteinsg.com Laurent Yoon+1 917 344 8502laurent.yoon@bernsteinsg.com Low-income Americans have experienced increasing pressure on necessities, high-income Americans are saving and investing more.Housing, health insurance and foodhave increasingly been eating into household expenditure for low- and middle-incomeAmericans. This is especially true for housing pressures on middle class Americans inthe last five years. High income Americans have been increasing allocations to savings/investments, pensions, and vehicles. Stephen Reitman+44 20 7762 5535stephen.reitman@bernsteinsg.com Lance Wilkes+1 917 344 8501lance.wilkes@bernsteinsg.com Over the last five years, certain categories/sectors have become significantlymore K-shaped, while others have seen a moderation. Within our coverage,vehiclepurchasesare the most K-shaped, with the top 20% of earnings spending 6.9x morein 2024 than the low income earners. This is followed byalcoholic beverages(5.7x),food away from home(4.6x) andpersonal care productsand services (4.2x).Medicalservices(3.5x),apparel(3.4x) andhealth insurance(2.9x) sit middle of the pack. Mostegalitarian arehousekeeping supplies(2.6x),food at home(2.4x),drugs(2.3x) andtobacco(0.8x). Over the last five years, vehicle purchases, food away from home andpersonal care products have becomemoreK-shaped. Alcoholic beverages, medicalservices, apparel, housekeeping supplies and good at home have becomelessK-shaped. Courtney Breen+1 917 344 8407courtney.breen@bernsteinsg.com Luca Solca+41 582 723 126luca.solca@bernsteinsg.com INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times”. The famous opening line of Charles Dickens’ ‘A Tale of Two Cities’ capturesa period of contradiction: the French aristocracy indulging in opulence and privilege, the peasantry experiencing poverty andoppression. While 2026 is thankfully not 18thcentury France, shifting class dynamics remain more topical than ever, from theUS K-shaped economy to the squeezed Chinese middle class. In this note, we examine the changes in how high- vs. low-incomeAmericans spend their time and money over the last two decades and what it means for investing today. EXHIBIT 2:… the French aristocracy indulging in opulenceand privilege, the peasantry experiencing poverty andoppression. American & European Alcoholic Beverages. The K-shaped economy has taken centre stage in cyclical camp of the ongoingcyclical vs. structural debate in US alcohol. At a macro level, the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ data finds that Americans spent~1.9