最好的时代，最坏的时代：如何在阶级动态变化和美国K型经济中投资

class dynamics and the Us K-shaped economy Dickens'A Tale of Two Cities'capturesa period ofcontradiction:theFrencharistocracyindulginginopulenceandprivilege,thepeasantryexperiencingpovertyandoppression.While2026is thankfully not 18th century France, shifting class dynamics remainmore nadine.sarwat@bernsteinsg.comTrevor Stirling topicalthanever,fromtheUSK-shapedeconomytothesqueezed Chinesemiddleclass.Inthis note,we examinethechanges in how high-vs.low-income Americans spendtheir timeandmoney overthe lasttwo decades and what it means for investingtoday.USincomeandwealth inequalityisrising;the USis experiencing a K-shaped trevor.stirling@bernsteinsg.comDanilo Gargiulo +1 917 344 8475danilo.gargiulo@bernsteinsg.comAlexia Howard economy.Asmallershareofthepopulationcontrolsincomeearnedandhealthvs.twodecadeago.Consumerconfidence,especiallylowandmiddle income,has collapsed +1 917 344 8453alexia.howard@bernsteinsg.com databases fromtheUSBureauofLabor Statistics.(1)TheAmerican TimeUse Surveycovers 7,700 nationallyrepresentative individuals and examines howthey spend theirhousehold expenditureacross specificproducts and services. +442076767183callum.elliott@bernsteinsg.com +442076766806william.woods@bernsteinsg.com andmoreonleisure;it'sthereverseforlow-income.Thistrendisamplifiedwhenlooking at the last five years only. Within leisure, in 2024 high-income Americans overindexto socializing,reading and participation in sports & exercise. Low-income overindextowatching TV,playing games/computerand general relaxation.Looking atthe change inthelastfiveyears,high-incomeAmericas spent incremental leisuretimeon playinggames/computer, general relaxation, reading and sports &exercise. Lost leisure time for low-income hasmainlycomefrom watching TV,sports &exercise andreading. +1 917 344 8457aneesha.sherman@bernsteinsg.com +1917 344 8502laurent.yoon@bernsteinsg.com Low-incomeAmericanshaveexperiencedincreasingpressureonnecessities,high-incomeAmericans are saving and investingmore.Housing,healthinsuranceand foodhave increasingly been eating into household expenditure forlow-and middle-incomeAmericans.This is especially truefor housing pressures on middle class Americans inthelast five years.High income Americans have been increasing allocations to savings/investments,pensions,andvehicles. StephenReitman+442077625535stephen.reitman@bernsteinsg.com +1917344 8501lance.wilkes@bernsteinsg.com Overthelastfiveyears,certain categories/sectorshavebecomesignificantlymoreK-shaped,whileothershave seenamoderation.Within ourcoverage,vehiclepurchases are the most K-shaped, with the top 20% of earnings spending 6.9xmorein 2024 than thelow income earners.This is followed by alcoholic beverages (5.7x),foodawayfromhome(4.6x)andpersonalcareproductsand services(4.2x).Medicalservices (3.5x),apparel (3.4x) and health insurance (2.9x) sit middle of the pack. Mostegalitarianarehousekeeping supplies (2.6x),foodathome(2.4x),drugs (2.3x)andtobacco(O.8x).Overthelastfiveyears,vehiclepurchases,foodawayfromhomeandpersonal careproducts havebecomemoreK-shaped.Alcoholicbeverages,medicalservices,apparel,housekeeping suppliesandgoodathomehavebecomeless K-shaped. Courtney Breen+1 917 344 8407courtney.breen@bernsteinsg.com Luca Solca+41582 723126luca.solca@bernsteinsg.com "lt wasthebestoftimes,itwas theworstoftimes'Thefamous opening lineof CharlesDickens'"ATaleof TwoCities'captures a period ofcontradiction:theFrencharistocracy indulging inopulenceandprivilege,thepeasantryexperiencingpovertyandoppression.While2026 isthankfullynot18th centuryFrance,shifting classdynamics remainmoretopicalthanever,fromtheUsK-shaped economyto thesqueezed Chinesemiddle class.Inthis note, we examine the changes inhowhigh-vs.low-incomeAmericans spendtheirtimeandmoneyoverthelasttwodecadesandwhat itmeansforinvesting today andprivilege,thepeasantryexperiencingpovertyandoppression. Source: A Tale of Two Cities (The First British Edition) Phiz or Hablot KnightBrowne(1859) American&EuropeanAlcoholicBeverages.TheK-shapedeconomyhastakencentrestageincyclicalcampoftheongoingcyclical vs.structural debate in US alcohol. At a macro level,the Bureau of Economic Analysis'data finds that Americans spent~1.93%of their personal expenditure on alcohol in 2025.This is actually 4bps higherthan in 2019,which we believe is likelydriven by three potential factors (i) higher on-premise spending, especially due to higher pricing in the on-premise vs. off-premise, (i) premiumization during COVID, and (ii) the growth of spirits-RTDs. By income cohort, we have seen relatively morepressure alcohol spending forlower-income Americans.Looking attheBernstein K-Shaped index, between 2014 and 2018,the ratio increasedfrom~4.5xtoalmost~8.Ox.Alcoholconsumptionpercapita waslargelystable (onaverage)overthistimeperiod, and so a major contributorto the increase in multiple is likely premiumization, especially amongst spending of highearnings.2020 also sawa spike in themultiple,reflective of thepremiumization seen