欧洲财政委员会评估2027年欧元区的适当财政立场

Composition of the European Fiscal Board Pieter HasekampChair Eckhard JanebaMember George KopitsMember Benedicta MarzinottoMemberAssistantProfessorof Economic Policyat the University of Udine, Italy,VisitingProfessor at the College of Lucía Rodríguez Muñoz Member For more information about the European Fiscal Board,please visit the following website:https://ec.europa.eu/european-fiscal-board This report was written under the responsibility of the European Fiscal Board with the support of its secretariat.Please quote as: European Fiscal Board (2026) Assessment of the fiscalstance appropriate for the euro Comments on the report should be sent to: Secretariat of the European Fiscal BoardEuropean CommissionRue de la Loi200OfficeBERL2/352B-1049BrusselsEmail:EFB-SECRETARIAT@ec.europa.eu Cut-off date:5June 2026 The opinions expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the European Fiscal Board and do notnecessarily reflectthe views of institutionswith whichthe Boardor its individual membersare affiliated orfor which theywork. andduration of the crisis with someforecastinginstitutions noting that theeconomy has already moved away from their Foreword Governments have implemented a first set ofalleviating fiscal measures for households andbusinesses.For now,these measures aredesignedto be short-lived in 2026 andcomparativelymodest.Fiscal authorities PieterHasekampChairof the EuropeanFiscal Board (EFB) The beginning of 2026 offered some short-lived optimism about the prospects for 2027.It almost looked as if the euro area might bereturningto normality after successfullyweathering the Covid-19pandemic andtheenergycrisis following the full-scale invasionof Ukraine in 2022. However, a renewedconflict in the Middle East disrupting energysuppliesand trade through the Strait ofHormuzhas complicated the outlook,introduced new degrees of uncertaintyandincreased the already highpoliticalpressureon the public purse.In sum,this report Unlike in 2022, newenergy support measureshave been implemented in anenvironmentoftighter financing conditions across the euroareaincluding for sovereigns.Latest forecastssee average government interest expenditure Againstthis backdrop safeguarding thecredibilityof the reformed frameworkincludinginparticularfollowingtherecommended expenditure paths is crucial,whichby design,entails an automatic The extent of the incoming terms-of-tradeshock is still unfolding. While the growthoutlook for 2026 has been revised downconsiderablysince the start of the MiddleEastcrisis in February 2026,growth is CONTENTS KEY MESSAGES 1.Macroeconomic situation and outlook A1. Assessment of the fiscal impulse and stance in 202516 A2. Panel of figures20 Macroeconomic situation and outlook20 Fiscal policy developments23 Glossary 30 KEY MESSAGES •The current macroeconomic situation and outlook in the euro area is characterised by anexceptional degree of uncertaintydue to the fallout fromthewar in Iran.Predicated on theassumption that energy priceswill drop soon, thebaselinescenariosoflatestforecastsprojecteconomicgrowthto soften in 2026 followed by a gradual recovery in2027with no lastingimpact on inflation andresilientlabour markets. Scenarioswhere energy prices areassumed to •Under current policies, the latestCommission forecastfor 2027points to adiscretionaryfiscalexpansionofless than ¼%of GDP,which wouldadd to thestillelevated level offiscalsupportcarried over from an incomplete reversal of policies after Covid. This stands in contrast withthe contractionaryimpactof around ½% of GDP if all euro area countries followed the •The differencebetween projected and recommendedcourse offiscalpolicyfor the euro areaamounts to more than ½ percent of GDP. Thismainly reflects current policy trends inanumber oflarge(r)Member Statesand signalscorrespondingconsolidation needsthrough2027.The composition of Member States driving the projecteddiscretionaryfiscal expansion •Following apatternobserved after February 2022, most Member States introduced temporaryenergy support measures to alleviate price pressures stemming from the recent energy pricehike.At the time of writing, the overall volume is comparativelylow,and measures come with •However,echoing political choices of four years ago,the majorityof thenew supportmeasuresareuntargeted. In addition, thenewflexibility for energy support measuresunder the nationalescape clauseput forward by the Commission in its 2026 spring surveillance package can lead •The EFB reiterates its advice issued during the 2022-2023 energy crisis, stressing the importanceof temporary, non-distortionaryandwell-targeted support.Measures should not stand in theway of relative price changes and be limited to vulnerable households and businesses.The EFBis of the view that in the baseline scenario,where economic growth in the euro area is expectedto pick up again in 2027, the fiscal impulse implied bythe relevantCouncil recommendations •Should supply disruptions from