欧洲央行-欧元区银行业数字货币投资成本再评估

Contents 1Introduction42Available evidence on potential digital euro investment costs53Accounting for synergies and cost mutualisation73.1Methodology and analytical framework83.2Key results134Adjustments to PwC’s base estimates to correct for designassumptions165Data and methodology used to extrapolate cost estimates to theeuro area banking sector186Extrapolation of adjusted PwC figures with synergy factors:results and sensitivity analyses207Conclusion23Annex 1: Assessment of cost synergy for potential digital euroimplementation24A1. Market Synergies24A1.1. Vendor assessment24A1.2. Outsourcing level32A1.3. History of collaboration39A1.4. Exemplary synergies opportunities in the context of the digital euro41A2. Key results for market synergies41A2.1. Cost synergy potential – Base synergies case41A2.2. Cost synergy potential – Other scenarios42A3. Main public sources43 Executive summary Over the course of the past year, the banking industry has conducted studieson digital euro investment costs. The European Central Bank (ECB) welcomesthe studies – such as those conducted by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC),national banking associations and individual banks – and has invited theauthors to present their views on potential cost drivers and mitigants. This note presents a view on those digital euro investment cost studies.Thenote first documents and emphasises the potential for leveraging synergies andmutualising costs within the payment industry. It then presents the results of anextrapolation analysis based on banking sector estimates adjusted to reflect thedigital euro’s design. The analysis was conducted with the support of experts from thenational central banks, ECB Banking Supervision and external consultancy RolandBerger. A key finding is that significant cost savings can be achieved by making use ofsynergies and mutualising costs, which is in line with established practices inthe payment industry.This finding also implies that banks would not have toimplement the digital euro on a stand-alone basis. Altogether, the findings suggest that if the potential savings from synergiesand cost mutualisation were properly accounted for, the banking industry’sown estimates could lie within a range of €4 billion to €5.77 billion in total, or €1billion to €1.44 billion annually over a four-year period.The costs would thus lieclose to the upper boundary estimated by the European Commission in its 2023impact assessment. In this assessment accompanying the digital euro legislativeproposal, the Commission estimated that digital euro investment costs would bebetween €2.8 billion and €5.4 billion for euro area credit institutions. Based on theseextrapolated total figures, digital euro investment costs would also be broadlycomparable to those estimated for past initiatives such as the Payment ServicesDirective (PSD2)1 and well below those for the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA).This note deliberately abstracts from “internal” synergies (e.g. reusing existing bankprocesses like know-your-customer), focusing instead on external synergies and costmutualisation from outsourcing to central providers or vendors. While internalsynergies, identified in Euro Retail Payments Board (ERPB) technical sessions, areexpected to materialise they will be further refined in stakeholder discussions.Importantly, this note does not discuss the potential positive impacts of the digitaleuro on business models, such as compensation mechanisms, the absence ofscheme fees, or the opportunities for European bank-led private solutions. This view on investment costs is provided at the request of co-legislators andis intended as a background for discussions among co-legislators andpolicymakers on the legislative proposal on the digital euro.It should thus support the legislative discussions and help ensure the timely adoption of thelegislative proposal. The Eurosystem also remains open to working with the banking industrytowards the shared goal of minimising digital euro investment efforts, reusingexisting payment standards and solutions as far as possible, and enablingdigital euro standards and solutions to be reused for European paymentschemes.This note thus serves a dual purpose. On the one hand it presents aself-contained view on euro area investment costs that takes key factors such assynergies and cost mutualisation into account; on the other hand, it provides astarting point for evidence-driven discussions to ensure these key factors materialise.For this reason, it has been presented in the ERPB to foster a constructive andinformed discussion, emphasising the importance of close dialogue with the bankingindustry as a basis for further reflections. 1Introduction This note presents a view on the digital euro investment cost studiesconducted by the banking industry.The note (i) assesses and documents thepotential for leveraging synergies and mutualising costs in the payment industry, (ii)synthesises available evidence of synergies and cost mutua