B2B上升B2C下降：我们到2030年的新AI总可寻址市场预测

EquitiesInternet Software & Services B2B up, B2Cdown:ournewAITAM forecaststo 2030 United States ◆B2B:AIadoption up,driven by Anthropic butlifting all boats;we increase industry revenue forecasts by 74% in 2026-30e Nicolas Cote-Colisson*MD, Head of Global Tech PlatformsHSBC Continental Europenicolas.cote-colisson@hsbcib.com+44 20 7991 6826 ◆B2C: we cut our 2026-30e market revenue by 20% asusergrowth slowsand monetisation lagsat leader OpenAI Abhishek Shukla*, CFASenior Analyst, TechnologyHSBC BankMiddle East Limited, DIFCabhishek2.shukla@hsbc.com+971 4 5093343 ◆We increase our AI TAM by 38% in 2026-30e; we update ourOAI 2026-30efunding gapcalculation,halvedatUSD77bn Mohammed Khallouf*, CFAGlobal Tech Platforms AnalystHSBC Bank Middle East Limited, DIFCmohammed.khallouf@hsbc.com+971 4 509 3337 We increase our AI TAMby 38%in 2026-30e Trends that have emerged since April: (1) the B2B AI market is acceleratingsignificantly and (2) the B2C market is not growing as fast as we were expecting. Forbackground, see Global Tech Platforms:OpenAI: Back to chatbots–new HSBCforecasts, 1 April andOpenAI launches its new frontier model, 24 April. Paul Rossington*Senior Global Tech Platforms AnalystHSBC Bank plcpaul.rossington@hsbcib.com+44 20 7991 6734 Charlie Rothbarth*Global Tech Platforms AnalystHSBC Bank plccharlie.rothbarth@hsbc.com+44 203 2685284 We areupdatingour industryrevenue estimates: ◆AI B2Bindustry revenue: we increase ourestimatesby 74% over 2026-30e.Agentic AI brings new use cases and accelerates adoption, coding toolsareprogressingfast too. Anthropic is a clear leader in B2B,OpenAi (OAI)remains aserious but distant contenderalongside Gemini. Stephen BerseyHead of US Technology ResearchHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.stephen.bersey@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 4153 ◆B2C AIindustry revenue: we cut ourforecastsby 20% over 2026-30e driven byweaker user growth than expected in the market,notably at leader OAIandmore complex monetisation of consumer chatbots than we initially expected.ARPU dilution fromlow tiered packages impactssubscription revenue. Sameer Lam*Global Software AnalystHSBC Bank plcsameer.lam@hsbc.com+44 20 7992 3780 ◆B2B+B2CAIindustry revenue: we increase our 2026-30e AI total market revenueby 38%. * Employed by a non-USaffiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations The global AI landscape is shapingtowardhighconcentrationin the WestWe think we are witnessing the build-up of an LLM oligopoly in thewesternside ofthe world, shaped by the very high cost of compute that has created a high barrier toentry.Significant cost cutting is not an option in our view. Scaling law dominates: morecompute → smarter models → more users → more revenue.Such market structureincreases the probability of recouping sunk costs by achieving long-term RoIC higherthan WACC, absent sector regulation. We believe that OAI is well positioned to be one of the keyparticipantsin the formingoligopoly. Withthis in mind, wecutourOAI2030funding gapestimateto USD77bnfrom USD154bn,througha combination oflowerestimatedFCF deficit, incrementalequity raise,andincrease inthevalue ofAdvanced Micro Devices (AMDUS)sharesthat OAI could sell when they vest.Optionsto close the gap includean IPO(Anthropicjust filed withthe SEC)andanother funding round (the latestroundraised USD122bn inApril 2026). Issuer of report:HSBC Continental Europe Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read withthe disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Theglobal AI landscape is shaping further 3.5 years after the groundbreaking launch of ChatGPT (30 November 2022), the AI landscape isstill in the making. If OpenAI(OAI)remains a leading reference in the West, its pioneer status didn’tguaranteea perpetual lead position: Anthropic hassurpassed OAI’sQ22026 ARR (annualised rateof revenue).We also continue to observe a strategy gap and outcomesin the West and the East. A selectedgroupoffrontier models in the West… PioneerOAIhas been rapidly joined by well-funded competitors, essentially Anthropic andGemini, but also, from adistance, byMeta. Wethink wearewitnessing the build-upof anoligopoly in thewesternside of the world, shaped by the very high cost of compute that hascreated a high barrier to entry(a “sunk costs” economy). This is illustrated by the step-up in unitmeasurements, from billion dollars to trillion dollars, from megawatts to gigawatts. Europeisleveraging these Westernmodelsbut islooking at gaining some independence: Mistral AI canplay a bigrole there. The French company hasraisedEUR1.7bnin September 2025 (a series Cfunding led byASMLvaluing the company at EUR11.7bn post-money)to become theAI namefor Europe, focusing on buildingprecise business cases and deep integration into clients’processes.The companyisnot focused on reaching the state ofAGI