2030年人工智能地缘政治：通过战略AI主权的新权力分布

Contents Welcome – KPMG in Germany4Welcome – German AI Association5 Executive Summary6 AI sovereignty: Strategic imperatives inthe age of technological competition12 Benchmarking AI power: Global results andkey insights18 Welcome to tomorrow: Four futures reimaginingglobal AI power40 Sovereignty as a system: From insight toscalable execution54 Policy recommendations: European AI strategy –from regulation to innovation leadership57 From diagnosis to action: Global imperativesand Europe’s strategic agenda69 Appendix72 Study design73Strategic AI Capability Index (SACI)75Survey methodology81At a glance: The four scenarios in direct comparison84Index KPIs and scenario dimensions86References87 Contacts92 Dear Readers Artificial intelligence has moved from promise topractice. It is no longer confined to experimentation orfuture potential; it now shapes how economies grow,how industries compete, and how societies organisetrust. The Strategic AI Capability Index (SACI) offersa clear view of this transition: now durable leadershipin AI comes not from isolated breakthroughs, butfrom the ability to translate capability into impact –consistently, responsibly, and at scale. What will matter most is the ability to align tech-nology, governance, and talent in a way that fitsregional priorities while remaining globally competitive. Sovereignty in AI, as this study explores, is aboutcapability, not isolation. It demands developing,deploying and governing critical systems in line witheconomic objectives and societal values, whileremaining open to partnership where it acceleratesprogress. That requires investing in scalable founda-tions, sustained development of skills, and translatingresponsible principles into operational reality. Across regions different patterns emerge. Someecosystems convert innovation rapidly into measurableproductivity gains and new business models. Otherspossess strong assets such as world-class research,deep talent pools, industrial strength, and establishedgovernance traditions, yet struggle to connect thesestrengths into a self-reinforcing system. Excellence isessential, but conversion has become decisive.Progress compounds where adoption, infrastructure,policy clarity, and skills come together. Leaders across the AI ecosystem are already adjustingtheir strategies in response to this shift: setting clearertargets, modernising data foundations, and shiftingfocus from isolated use cases to platform approaches.The direction is right. Now, it is about moving fasterand with greater coherence: making AI a core strate-gic lever, committing to scalable foundations, andembedding responsible principles in daily practice. Europe stands at a decisive moment within thislandscape. It combines strong research institutions,a powerful industrial base, and a long-standingcommitment to responsibility and trust. The challengelies not in innovation capacity, but in speed and scale:moving beyond pilots to broad deployment, comple-menting regulatory clarity with execution, and trans-lating strengths in leading clusters into economy-wideeffects. China’s focus on industrial capabilities, hard-ware sovereignty, high-speed deployment, andeconomic diffusion illustrates one pathway. The UnitedStates’ integration of capital, compute, and enterpriseadoption points to another. Each model has trade-offs. This study is intended as a practical guide for this nextphase. It brings together comparative evidence, asystem-level view of capability, and a set of prioritiesthat can help decision-makers move from analysis toapplication. It does not advocate a single model ofleadership. Instead, it offers a framework for aligningregional strengths with global realities. One that turnstrust into speed, and ambition into lasting value. We hope the insights that follow support you innavigating these choices with clarity, confidenceand strategic urgency. Mattias Schmelzer CEO, Chairman ofthe Managing Board,KPMG in Germany Ashish Madan CTO, Managing Partner,Head of Technology Services,KPMG in Germany Dear Readers Over the past seven years as Managing Director andBoard Member of the German AI Association, respec-tively, we have been closely engaged with Europe’s AIecosystem. We, therefore, understand that theconversations conducted in the context of this study,which are more than twenty in-depth interviews withAI experts, startup founders, researchers, and institu-tional partners across Europe, offer a particularlyconcentrated and timely perspective. They providedinsight not only into the state of European AI capabili-ties, but also into the systemic conditions shaping howthose capabilities are translated into impact. The interviews underpinning this study repeatedlyhighlight similar constraints. Many actors operatingat the frontier of AI development encounter frictionnot because of insufficient ambition or technical com-petence, but due to fragmented decision-making, rigidorganisational processes, and limited pathways for