格鲁吉亚：选定问题

GEORGIA SELECTED ISSUES This paperonGeorgiawas prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fundas background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country.It is based on the information available at the time it was completed onMay 19, 2026. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. GEORGIA SELECTED ISSUES ApprovedByMiddle East andCentral AsiaDepartment Prepared By Elif Ture (MCD), Jean-Marc Atsebi (FAD),WillAbel (MCD), and Mehmet Cangul (SPR) CONTENTS LABOR MARKET IMPLICATIONS OF SKILL MISMATCHES AND NON-LABORINCOME IN GEORGIA________________________________________________________________2 A.Introduction_________________________________________________________________________2B.The Size and Nature of Skill Mismatches_____________________________________________3C.The Impact of Remittances and Government Transfers on Labor Market Outcomes_6D.Conclusion and Policy Options____________________________________________________11 FIGURES 1. Selected Labor Market Indicators Compared to Peers______________________________132. Selected Labor Market Indicators in Georgia_______________________________________143. Skill Mismatches in the Georgian Labor Market____________________________________154. Impact of Remittances and Government Transfers on Labor Market Outcomes____165. Propensity Scores and Covariate Balancing________________________________________18 References____________________________________________________________________________19 RESERVE ADEQUACY IN GEORGIA: HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?____________________21 A.Introduction_______________________________________________________________________21B.Analytical Framework: Baseline and Extensions____________________________________22C.Conclusions and Policy Options____________________________________________________26 References____________________________________________________________________________27 ANNEX I. Technical Details____________________________________________________________________29 LABOR MARKET IMPLICATIONS OF SKILLMISMATCHES AND NON-LABOR INCOME INGEORGIA1 Unemployment remains structurally high in Georgia, partly driven by highskill mismatchesandweakwork incentivesamid low wages, withmany households relyingon remittances and governmenttransfers as key income sources.This paper finds thatover‑educationremains widespread in Georgiaamid limited availability of productive jobs,alongside shortages intechnical and job-relevant skillsreflecting weak links between education and labor demand.At the same time,remittances and socialtransfersareestimated to lower the aggregate employment rate by about 2¼ percentage points.Addressing these constraintsrequires coordinated efforts in education reform, sectoral upgrading,employer‑led training, and more effectivepublic employment services and social assistance benefits. A.Introduction 1.Georgia facespersistentlabor market challenges, notably highunemployment,particularly among youth,and mounting reports of skill shortages by firms(Text Figures 1-2).Unemploymenthas fallento a historic low, but it remains above most peers, particularlyamongyoung people (Figure 1a). While labor force participation is broadly in line with peers(Figure 1b),youth inactivity isnotablyhigh, witha larger share ofyoung people neither studying nor workingcompared to most peers(Figure 1c). At the same time, firms increasingly report skill and laborshortages among top business constraints, yet wages lag peers(Figure 1d), with many householdsrelying on income support from remittances (Figure 1e) and government transfers (Figure 1f). 2.This paper examines how skill mismatches andsizeable non-labor income fromremittances andgovernment transfersaffect labor market outcomes in Georgia.It findswidespread over‑education and under‑skilling, reflecting a structural oversupply of general andtertiary education relative to job‑relevant and technical skills. In 2024, 27 percent of prime‑ageworkers and 36 percent of youthwere overeducated for their jobs, with 40 percent of tertiaryeducated workers in mid‑to‑low‑skilledroles, whereas under‑educationwasconcentrated inhigher‑skill sectors such as ICT, finance, and managerial and professionalroles.Field‑of‑studymismatcheswere also sizeable, with only aboutathird of workers employed in jobs aligned withtheir training. These patterns point to weak links between education and labormarket demand andlimited absorption capacity in high‑productivity sectors. At the same time, low wages combined withsizable remittances and social transfers dampen labor supply incentives, particularly for women.Using a doubly robust AugmentedInverseProbabilityWeighting (AIPW)approach,staffestimatethat remittances and government transfersreduce hou