道路交通电制燃料（电子燃料）市场规模化发展情景分析

Convenience translation, original in German A study forUNITI BundesverbandEnergieMittelstand e.V. 18SEPTEMBER2024 Table of contents Summary 2Background and objectives of the study 3Costs of e-fuels in the international market ramp-up 3.1Key cost components of e-fuels and their drivers3.2Evaluation and assessment of current projections for production costs for e-fuels 4Possible future blending paths for e-fuels during market ramp-up 4.1Factors affecting the ramp-up of e-fuels volumes4.2Analysing the availability of e-fuels 5Future prices for fuels during the e-fuels market ramp-up 34 5.1Assumptions for the components of consumer prices5.2Development path of consumer prices under increasing e-fuels blending volumes 6Conclusions and recommendations for the market ramp-up of e-fuels 43 Annex A Literature45 Annex B Further results and assumptions Annex C Data tables Study commissioned by: UNITI BundesverbandEnergieMittelstande. V. Jägerstrasse 610117 Berlinwww.uniti.de Contact Summary The industrial production of e-fuels isjust beginning. E-fuels offer an opportunity to defossilise thetransport sector,i.e. aviation,shipping androad transport,as well as processes in othersectorssuchas industry and heating. A key advantage of e-fuels is that theycan be used–in pure form or blendedwithconventional fuels–in existingsystems andvarious modesof transport. In road transport, this Currently, production costs for e-fuels are estimatedto be high.This is due tothe high costs forfirstofits kinde-fuels productionplants that have not yet been scaled up, both in theproductionof plantcomponents andofe-fuels.However,overtimecosts of producinge-fuelsare expectedtofall Againstthebackgroundof the market ramp-up of e-fuelsstillbeinginaninitial phase, and thepossibility ofgradual blendingwith conventional fuels, weanalysein this studyhow the price ofa fuelmixthatcontainsincreasingshares ofe-fuelscould develop up to the year2045. Here,we focus on 1.What are the key cost componentsfor the provision ofe-fuelsandwhat cost trends can beexpected for e-fuels in the medium and long term?2.What volumescan be assumedto be availableand what blending ratios of e-fuels to conventional Current literature shows thatconsiderable cost reductions in the production of e-fuels can Theperceivablyhigh costs for e-fuelsarein line withthe market ramp-up still in the initial phase withrelatively few initial projects.Theessentialcostcomponentsintheproductionof e-fuels arethe costs increases, significantreductionsofproduction costscan be expected due tolearningeffects To derivea range for the long-termdevelopmentof production costs for e-fuels,weanalyserecently publishedthird-party studiesas part of this study.ThemainstudiesanalysedarefromConcawe&Aramco(2024),Öko-Institut,Agora Energiewende&Agora Industry(2024)andFraunhoferIEE(2021),which arecomplementedby the studyfromAgoraVerkehrswende, Agora Based onthe literature review,we estimatethelong-term1production costs(including transport toGermany)fore-petrolat€1.10-1.63perlitreand for e-dieselat€1.22-1.80per litre.Therefore,theaveragesupply pricefor pure e-fuelswillfallby around 35% inthe long termcompared to today due Regulatory and political framework conditionsaffectthe availability of e-fuels in Germany The production potential and capacities will unlikely be a limiting factor inmeetingthelong-termdemandfore-fuels.Pfennig et al. (2023),for example,estimate that the long-term e-fuels productionpotentialat suitable locations outside Europe is higher than the current global final energy Due to the numerous influencing factors, predicting the available volumes of e-fuels in Germany iscurrently highly uncertain.Weassumea possible, stylisedramp-up of e-fuel volumesbased onliterature on product life cycles, following an S-curve,i.e. an initial phase followed by a period of rapidgrowth, and finally, a plateau where growth slows as the market becomes saturated.We assume that In the appendix, we alsopresentan alternativeblending scenariothatonlytakes technical restrictionsinto account,assuming ideal legal, politicaland financial conditions.Inthis sensitivity,wearrive ata fasterramp-up ofe-fuels,wheree-fuels couldcompletelyreplacefossilfuelsas early as2037(e- With an increasingshareof e-fuels in the fuel mix, price changesat thefillingstationare Besidesproduction costs,fuelpricesatthefillingstationalsoinclude further cost components suchasdistributioncostsandtaxes.Beingclimate neutral,e-fuels, unlikefossil fuels,arenotsubjecttoanylevies undertheGermanBrennstoffemissionshandelsgesetz(Fuel Emissions Trading Act)or the We model price pathsforthe future fuel mix ofe-fuelsand reference fuel (forpetrol and diesel)assumingtheblendingscenario and the previouslyderived cost range.With regard to the price ■Negligiblepriceimpactin the market ramp-up phase:In aninitialmarket ramp-up phase, inwhich e-fuels are foreseeably stillsignificantlymore expensive than fossil fuels,onlya small ■Long-ter