腾讯：微信代理式AI即将到来？

Tencent Holdings Ltd Charles Gou+852 2123 2618charles.gou@bernsteinsg.com RatingOutperform Min-Joo Kang+852 2123 2644minjoo.kang@bernsteinsg.com Price Target 780.00 HKD 700.HK Hyrum Caesar+81 3 6777 6979hyrum.caesar@bernsteinsg.com Tencent: Weixin agentic AI on the horizon? Invites to the Weixin agentic AI ecosystem.On Monday, Tencent announced that itwould launch access for Mini Program developers to its AI ecosystem. This comes on theheels of Tencent signing Agent2Agent deals with five smartphone makers (Huawei, Honor,Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo) to enable their respective AI assistants to integrate with Weixin and itsvarious ecosystems. The latter allows Weixin to “recommend and manipulate” enrolled MiniPrograms. Taken together, the moves position Weixin as the platform layer Chinese Internetusers depend on to access agentic AI services - before they swipe open their phones. Close Date8 Jun 2026700.HK Close Price (HKD)446.40Price Target (HKD)780.00Upside/(Downside)75%52-Week Range683.00/420.40ASIAX1,907.25FYEDecDiv Yield1.2%Market Cap (HKD) (B)4,070.33EV (HKD) (B)3,548.78 The platform play.These A2A deals aren't exclusive, and there’s technically nothing to stoppeers from attempting to enlist the smartphone manufacturers to similar agreements. On theother hand, it should be obvious why Tencent has the upper hand here. The average ChineseInternet user opens Weixin over 40 times a day, in large part due to social messaging. Version2.0 of Bytedance’s AI-enabled Doubao phone is expected soon-ish. But the fact Bytedanceexpansion represents the main competitive threat facing most tier 2 Internet platformsprobably conflicts with its ability to pursue a similar strategy to Weixin. The important questions from here.How quickly can Tencent/WXG iterate the newA2A system from v0.1 to becoming the kind of seamless execution Chinese Internet usersexpect from Weixin? Will the agentic orchestration run on Tencent’s own model, or a third-party (Yuanbao and ima use DeepSeek and GLM-5.1)? How much consumer adoptiondoes Tencent need to see (with associated implications for inference costs) before it feelscomfortable monetising ecosystem partners for use of the new traffic funnel? We expectthese questions to take time to be fully addressed, but we do expect Tencent to get there. Tencent as the benevolent gatekeeper.In a recent meeting, execs at one of China’s otherlarge Internet platforms argued to us that Tencent’s willingness to monetise its platformsparingly meant it was the only company in China that peers would trust to orchestrate amulti-platform ecosystem. During Q1 reporting, Meituan spoke of plans to draw traffic fromTencent’s Yuanbao agentic AI - we’d imagine the cohort of past and present Tencent investeecompanies will be among the first to sign up for new AI services on Weixin. The cost of AI-maxxing, and the way back The main bear case around Tencent right now relates to the “more than doubling” of AI spend this year versus RMB18bn in2025, and the risk that incremental AI costs will continue to weigh on Tencent earnings growth ad infinitum. An iteration periodwill probably be required, but (regardless of whether the Weixin agent lands at the end of June, or in H2 2026) progress on AIproduct roll-outs should argue for light at the end of the negative earnings revisions tunnel. The level of AI capabilities required to support A2A WeChat orchestration - or Mini Shops monetisation - is probably not rocketscience, meaning Tencent’s tech becomes “good enough” relatively soon. Internally, we think it’s likely Tencent will restructurestaff token spend to be more efficient, following a period of rampant tokenmaxxing. Tencent as a stock feels very oversold to us. The company is too upstanding to report an “Others” segment to house thecompany’s peripheral businesses and investment spend. But the core operating business (excluding listed investments) isprobably trading on a 10x multiple of 2027E profits at this point. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate Tencent Outperform (PT HK$780). BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures,