代理式商业机遇：AI代理如何为消费者和商家开创一个新时代

Agentic AI promises toradically remake the entireshopping experience. Here’sa glimpse into the nearfuture—and what merchants, by Katharina Schumacher and Roger Robertswith Katharina Giebel Confidential and proprietary. Any use ofthis material without specific permission ofMcKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited. Copyright © 2025 McKinsey & Company.All rights reserved.Cover image © Andriy Onufriyenko/Getty Images. Contents CHAPTER 1 A new kind of shopping experience—seamless,efficient, and mediated by AI agents3 CHAPTER 2Creating the infrastructure for agentic commerce7 CHAPTER 3Business model evolution in the era of agentic commerce12 CHAPTER 4Navigating trust and risk: Why responsible AI is keyto agentic commerce adoption at scale18 CHAPTER 5 The challenges and opportunities of agentic commerce22 At a glance —Agentic commerce—shopping powered by AI agents acting on our behalf—represents aseismic shift in the marketplace. It moves us toward a world in which AI anticipates consumerneeds, navigates shopping options, negotiates deals, and executes transactions, all in —This isn’t just an evolution of e-commerce. It’s a rethinking of shopping itself in whichthe boundaries between platforms, services, and experiences give way to an integratedintent-driven flow, through highly personalized consumer journeys that deliver a fast, —The stakes are high: By 2030, the US B2C retail market alone could see up to $1 trillion inorchestrated revenue from agentic commerce, with global projections reaching as high as —This trend will have the breadth of impact of prior web and mobile-commerce revolutions, but itcan move even faster since agents can traverse the same digital paths to purchase as humans, —This presents both benefits and risks for today’s commerce ecosystem. All kinds of businesses—brands, retailers, marketplaces, logistics and commerce services providers, and paymentsplayers—will need to adapt to the new paradigm and successfully navigate the challenges of —From a technical standpoint, that means mastering and deploying emerging integration enablerslike Anthropic’s Model Context Protocol (MCP), Agent-to-Agent (A2A) Protocol, Agent PaymentsProtocol (AP2), and Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP) that enable a new era of intelligent,autonomous agents. It also means fundamentally re-architecting approaches to identitymanagement and loyalty. Smart organizations are already beginning to create new, agent-ready —Business models will also have to change to thrive in an agent-driven economy. This meansexploring new monetization strategies and new marketing and customer engagementapproaches. For many intermediaries in today’s shopping flow, a key choice will be whether to —Agentic commerce requires a fundamental rethinking of how value is created, captured, anddelivered. Companies that adapt quickly will not only meet evolving consumer expectations butalso redefine their industries. Those that hesitate risk losing ground as AI agents become the A new kind of shoppingCH A P TE R 1 experience—seamless, efficient, Imaginethat a promising new job opportunity requires you to relocate your family across thecountry. Chances are that whatever excitement you feel about the new role is soon temperedby the innumerable hassles of moving. You need to find a comfortable home with a manageablecommute, decide what to bring and what to sell, and engage a trustworthy moving company to deliver everything on time. Then there’s the issue of finding new doctors, veterinarians for the pets, agym, and after-school programs for the kids. It’s overwhelming.Now imagine that you had an autonomous AI agent to handle these tasks for you. With a deepunderstanding of your budget, lifestyle, commute preferences, kids’ hobbies, and even your pets’needs, the agent can get to work. To research neighborhoods and housing options, it synthesizesdata from multiple sites and platforms, scanning myriad real estate listings and recommending You have a place; now, on to your stuff. Is it worth $700 to ship this dresser, or should you sell it for$200 and buy a new one when you arrive? If the latter, what are the options? You snap photos ofyour furniture, and the agent assesses resale value, lists items for sale on various platforms, andnegotiates sales on your behalf. For new items, it sources local options that fit your style and budget,simulating what fits in your new apartment and offering interior design suggestions, and then In the traditional world of commerce, accomplishing this would require navigating a dozen differenttools, websites, online marketplaces, and retail stores. In the agentic era, the AI agent does much ofthis for you, serving as your personal strategist, designer, negotiator, and logistics manager. It makesmicrodecisions across multiple dimensions—budget, aesthetics, logistics—transforming a stressful, From chaos to coordination: This is agentic commerce What is agentic commerce? In the simplest terms, it is shopping