北马其顿共和国：若干问题

SELECTED ISSUES This paper on the Republic of North Macedonia was prepared by a staff team of theInternational Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultationwith the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted onMay 12, 2026. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. REPUBLIC OF NORTHMACEDONIA SELECTED ISSUES ApprovedByEuropean Department Prepared By Adina Popescu, Simona Kovachevska Stefanova,Faton Sulejmani, Yuan Xiao, Chan Kim and Ming Ma (EUR),Rimtautas Bartkus (SPR), Anamaria Maftei (FAD). UNLEASHING POTENTIAL: STRUCTURAL REFORMS FOR BOOSTING LONG-TERMGROWTH _____________________________________________________________________________ 3 A. Growth Drivers and Performance ____________________________________________________3B. Estimating Potential Output__________________________________________________________5C. Estimating the Medium-term GDP Impact of Structural Reforms ____________________6D. Priority Reform Areas for Accelerating Convergence_______________________________ 10E. Building a Cohesive Reform Roadmap _____________________________________________ 15 BOX 1. The EU Growth Plan: A Catalyst for Structural Reform________________________________9 FIGURES 1. Growth Developments Relative to Western Balkan Peers_____________________________32. Real GDP Growth Decompositions: Demand and Production Side ___________________43. Output Growth and Potential Growth ________________________________________________54. Distance to Frontier in Selected Structural Policy Areas ______________________________75. Medium-Term GDP Impact of Selected Structural Reforms __________________________86. Labor Market Performance in North Macedonia Relative to Western Balkan Peers_ 117. North Macedonia and Aspirational EU Peers: Governance Gap ____________________ 138. Overall Digitalization _______________________________________________________________ 149. Digital Government Readiness and Maturity _______________________________________ 15 TABLE 1. Potential Output Growth Estimates __________________________________________________6 ANNEXES I. Multivariate Filter Models___________________________________________________________________ 17II. Structural Reforms Heatmap by Country ___________________________________________________ 21III. Structural Reforms Output Gains __________________________________________________________ 22 References____________________________________________________________________________________ 24 TAX POTENTIAL IN NORTH MACEDONIA__________________________________________________ 27 A. Background ________________________________________________________________________________ 27B. Tax Potential _______________________________________________________________________________ 30C. Policy Recommendations __________________________________________________________________ 31 FIGURES 1. Fiscal Developments and Projected Spending Pressures ___________________________________ 272. Headline Tax Rates and Tax Expenditures, 2025 ____________________________________________ 283. Tax Revenue Composition in North Macedonia and Western Balkans______________________ 284. Tax Efficiency and Long-Run Tax Buoyancy in North Macedonia and Western _____________ 295. World Bank Estimates of Informal Economy as a Share of GDP for 2020 ___________________ 306. North Macedonia’s Estimated Tax Gap and Potential ______________________________________ 317. Selected Tax Rates in North Macedonia: Energy Excises and Property Taxes _______________ 33 ANNEX I. Panel Regression____________________________________________________________________________ 35 References____________________________________________________________________________________ 36 UNLEASHING POTENTIAL: STRUCTURAL REFORMSFOR BOOSTING LONG-TERM GROWTH This paper assesses North Macedonia’s long-term growth challenges and quantifies the potential gainsfrom structural reforms. Despite substantial progress since the early 2000s, average real GDP growthhas lagged regional peers and income convergence remains slow, reflecting weak productivity growthand rising labor underutilization amid aging and emigration. Using a suite of methods—includingunivariate filters on annual and quarterly GDP and two semi-structural multivariate models estimatedwith a Kalman filter (an annual model with Okun’s law and a quarterly projection model)—weestimate potential output growth at about 2.6–2.9 percent in 2025, with a small positive output gap.We then benchmark structural policy indicators against a CESEE frontier and simulate medium-termoutput effects from closing half the gap. The results suggest sizable gains over a five-year horizon—around 14 percent high