人口动态、劳动力市场一体化和移民：北马其顿共和国

IMF Selected Issues PaperEuropean DepartmentPopulation Dynamics, Labor Market Integration, and Migration, Republic of North MacedoniaPrepared by Stephen Ayerst and Simona Kovachevska Stefanova*Authorized for distribution by Annette KyobeMay 2025IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on April 8, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/102.ABSTRACT:The population of North Macedonia has been steadily declining over the past two decades and isprojected to continue to decline into the foreseeable future due to emigration. This paper estimates anexpected cost of the population decline on potential output growth of around 0.5 percentage points. The paperemploys a structural model of the European labor market with migration. Increasing productivity benefitspotential output and helps protect the labor force from emigration. Productivity-increasing structural reforms,active labor market policies, new business support, and labor participation support can boost output, helping tooffset some of the negative impact of migration.RECOMMENDED CITATION:Ayerst, Stephen and Kovachevska Stefanova, Simona. Population Dynamics,Labor Market Integration, and Migration. IMF Selected Issues Paper (SIP/2025/064). Washington, D.C.:J61, J64, J68North Macedonia, Labor Markets, Population,MigrationSAyerst@imf.org,SKovachevska@imf.org International Monetary FundJEL Classification Numbers:Keywords:Author’s E-Mail Address: Population Dynamics, LaborMarket Integration, and MigrationRepublic of North MacedoniaPrepared by Stephen Ayerst and Simona Kovachevska Stefanova REPUBLIC OF NORTHMACEDONIASELECTED ISSUESApproved ByEuropean DepartmentPrepared By Stephen Ayerst, Simona Kovachevska StefanovaPOPULATION DYNAMICS, LABOR MARKET INTEGRATION, AND MIGRATION ___2A. Introduction__________________________________________________________________________2B. Projecting Future Potential Output___________________________________________________3C. Comparison of Labor Markets in the Western Balkan Countries______________________5D. Modeling Labor Markets and Migration in North Macedonia and Europe ___________8E. Examining Further EU Integration and Policy Scenarios ______________________________8F. Conclusions and Policy Discussion _________________________________________________11FIGURES1. Change in Population in North Macedonia and the Western Balkan Countries_______22. Potential Output Projections _________________________________________________________53. Participation and Unemployment Rates in the Western Balkans and EU _____________64. Simulated Impact of EU Integration on North Macedonia____________________________95. Simulated Impact of Policies on North Macedonia _________________________________11BOX1. Gender Market Gaps in North Macedonia and the Western Balkans _________________7References____________________________________________________________________________13CONTENTS 2INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDPOPULATION DYNAMICS, LABOR MARKETINTEGRATION, AND MIGRATIONThe population of North Macedonia has been steadily declining over the past two decades and isprojected to continue to decline into the foreseeable future due to emigration. This paper examines theexpected costs of the population decline on potential output growth. Staff estimates that the populationdecline would create a drag on output growth of around 0.5 percentage points. Increased emigration,potentially driven by further EU integration, presents a downside risk to outlook as it could furtherworsen population dynamics. To study the impact of further EU integration, the paper employs astructural model of the European labor market with migration. Negative impacts of further EUintegration from increased emigration can be offset by increasing productivity. The paper also showsthat productivity-increasing structural reforms, active labor market policies, new business support, andlabor participation support can all boost potential output, helping to offset some of the negative impactof migration.A.Introduction1.The population in North Macedonia has been steadily declining, largely because ofhigh emigration, and is expected to continue declining into the medium term.The 2021population census revised the population down by around 11 percent relative to its previouslyestimated values (Figure 1, left panel). The loss in population is not unique to North Macedonia asother Western Balkan countries experienced similar declines in population over the past decade, aswell as similar downward revisions following censuses (Figure 1, right panel). The UN WorldPopulation Prospects (2024 Revision) projects the population of North Macedonia to decline byaround 4 percent by 2030. Estimates by the statistics office of North Macedonia are morepessimistic, projecting the population to decline by almost 9 percent over