北马其顿共和国：2025年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告

2025ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASEANDSTAFF REPORT Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussionswith members, usually every year. In the context of the2025Article IV consultation withthe Republic ofNorth Macedonia, the following documents have beenreleased and areincluded in this package: •APress Release. •TheStaff Reportprepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’sconsiderationona lapse-of-time basis,following discussions that endedFebruary 26,2025,with the officials ofthe Republic ofNorth Macedoniaon economicdevelopments and policies. Based on information available at the time of thesediscussions, the staff report was completed onApril 8, 2025. •AnInformational Annexprepared by the IMFstaff. TheIMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information andpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports andother documents. Copies of this report are available to the publicfrom International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultationwith the Republic of North Macedonia FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE •Growth in North Macedonia is anticipated to reach 3.3% in 2025, driven by domesticdemand and public investment projects, although heightened external risks anduncertainties may weigh on this outlook. •The National Bank has effectively managed recent challenges including bringing downinflation after the energy cost shock and is cautiously easing monetary policy. However,risks remain particularly linked to persistent core inflation driven by strong wage growth. •The fiscal budget recorded a deficit of 4.4% of GDP, while public debt rose to 63% of GDPin 2024. Fiscal consolidation is essential to abide by fiscal rules and build policy buffers inan uncertain environment. Washington, DC – May 6, 2025:The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund(IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for North Macedonia1and considered andendorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis2. The authorities haveconsented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation. Economic growth in North Macedonia is gaining momentum in an environment of increaseduncertainty. Growth is expected to reach at 3.3 percent in 2025, driven by stronger domesticdemand as public investment projects (including the Corridor 8/10d road project) intensify andconsumption is supported by government transfers and real wage growth. However, weakexternal demand, influenced by structural shifts in the European automotive sector and globaluncertainties, is expected to weigh on growth. Inflation has been volatile, increasing towards the end of 2024, but has fallen recently, in linewith energy and food prices. Core inflation has become the main driver and remainspersistent, fueled by strong wage growth. The National Bank of the Republic of NorthMacedonia (NBRNM), which has effectively managed recent challenges including the energycost shock, has begun easing monetary policy more cautiously and with a lag following theEuropean Central Bank. The pace of fiscal consolidation in 2024 was slower than anticipated, in the context of anelection year. Spending increases, including on wages and a new pension law replaced indexation with an ad-hoc 20 percent increase of the monthly average pension, resulting in abudget deficit of 4.4 percent of GDP. Public debt continues its upward trend, reaching63 percent of GDP by end-2024. Fiscal rules include a limit on the budget deficit of 3 percentof GDP and a limit on general government debt of 60 percent of GDP, requiring thegovernment to commit to a 5-year corrective plan when these limits are breached. Domestic risks are elevated and the external outlook more uncertain. Weak public investment,stalled productivity reforms, emigration, and slowing activity of key trade partners threatengrowth in the medium-term. Meanwhile, high real wage growth without productivity gains andincreased fiscal transfers could further fuel inflation and erode competitiveness. Trade policyshifts and shocks to FDI may suppress exports and tighten financial conditions. Following the Executive Board discussion, Mr. Bo Li, Deputy Managing Director and Chair,issued the following statement: Executive Board Assessment In concluding the 2025 Article IV consultation with North Macedonia, Executive Directorsendorsed staff’s appraisal, as follows: The economy is expected to gain momentum, though risks are tilted to the downside.Growth is projected to reach 3.3 percent in 2025, driven by stronger domestic demand aspublic investment projects, including the Corridor 8/10d road project, intensify andconsumption is supported by government transfers and real wag