乌兹别克斯坦共和国：2025年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告

2025ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASE;ANDSTAFF REPORT Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussionswith members, usually every year. In the context of the2025Article IV consultation withthe Republic of Uzbekistan, the following documents have been released and are includedin this package: •APress Releasesummarizing the views of the Executive Board as expressed during itsJune 16, 2025,consideration of the staff report that concluded the Article IVconsultation withthe Republic of Uzbekistan. •TheStaffReportprepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’sconsideration onJune 16, 2025, following discussions that ended onApril 17, 2025,with the officials ofthe Republic of Uzbekistanon economic developments andpolicies. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staffreport was completed onMay 29, 2025. •AnInformational Annexprepared by the IMFstaff. •ADebt Sustainability Analysisprepared by the staffs of the IMFand theWorld Bank. The documents listed below will be separately released. Selected Issues TheIMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information andpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports andother documents. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultationwith the Republic of Uzbekistan FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE •Uzbekistan’s economic performance has remained strong, with robust growth, narrowingconsolidated fiscal and current account deficits, and ample international reserves. •Despite elevated external uncertainty, growth is projected to stay robust amid ongoingreforms and strong remittances, while inflation is expected to moderate under tightmacroeconomic and macroprudential policies. •The priorities ahead are to cement macro-financial stability and continue with theeconomic reform agenda to reduce the state’s footprint while fostering private sector-ledand inclusive growth. Washington, DC - June 18, 2025:On June 16, 2025, the Executive Board of the InternationalMonetary Fund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for the Republic of Uzbekistan.1The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for thisconsultation.2 Uzbekistan’s economic performance has remained strong. Real GDP growth stood at 6.5percent in 2024, underpinned by robust domestic demand, and remained buoyant at 6.8percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025. Inflation had trended downward through end-April 2024 but rose to 10.6 percent year-on-year in May 2024 that saw the implementation ofneeded energy price reform. By end-April 2025, it has only marginally eased to 10.1 percent.The current account deficit narrowed by 2.6 percentage points of GDP to about 5.0 percent in2024, driven by strong remittances, rapidly growing non-gold exports, favorable commodityprices, and the unwinding of a one-off spike in imports in 2023. International reserves haveremained ample. The consolidated fiscal deficit narrowed by 1.7 percentage points of GDP to3.2 percent of GDP in 2024, largely on the back of growth-friendly expenditure measures,although borrowing and spending from the broader public sector were higher than anticipated. The outlook remains broadly positive. Despite heightened global trade policy uncertainty, realGDP growth is projected to remain robust under the baseline, at close to 6 percent this year 2Under the IMF's Articles of Agreement, publication of documents that pertain to member countries isvoluntary and requires the member consent. The staff report will be shortly published on thewww.imf.org/Uzbekistanpage. and next, supported by sustained strength in private consumption, investment, andadvancement of structural reforms. The latter, continued tight monetary and macroprudentialpolicies, and solidified fiscal discipline are expected to reduce inflation to the Central Bank ofUzbekistan’s (CBU) 5 percent target by end-2027. The external current account deficit isforeseen to stay at or slightly below 5 percent over 2025-26 while international reserves areexpected to remain adequate, at 9.2 months of imports by end-2026. Downside risks to the outlook include prolonged and deeper trade policy shocks, more volatilecommodity prices, tighter external financing, and contingent liabilities from state-ownedenterprises and banks, and public-private partnerships. On the upside, opportunities stemfrom faster implementation of structural reforms, stronger inflows of income and capital, andfavorable commodity prices. Executive Board Assessment3 Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They welcomed Uzbekistan’spositive ec