北马其顿共和国：若干问题

SELECTED ISSUES This paper on the Republic of North Macedonia was prepared by a staff team of theInternational Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultationwith the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted onApril 8, 2025. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. REPUBLIC OF NORTHMACEDONIA SELECTED ISSUES Approved ByEuropean DepartmentPrepared By Stephen Ayerst, Adina Popescu,Simona Kovachevska Stefanova, Faton Sulejmani POPULATION DYNAMICS, LABOR MARKET INTEGRATION, AND MIGRATION ___3 A. Introduction _________________________________________________________________________3B. Projecting Future Potential Output___________________________________________________4C. Comparison of Labor Markets in the Western Balkan Countries _____________________6D. Modeling Labor Markets and Migration in North Macedonia and Europe ___________9E. Examining Further EU Integration and Policy Scenarios ______________________________9F. Conclusions and Policy Discussion _________________________________________________12 FIGURES 1. Change in Population in North Macedonia and the Western Balkan Countries_______32. Potential Output Projections _________________________________________________________63. Participation and Unemployment Rates in the Western Balkans and EU _____________74. Simulated Impact of EU Integration on North Macedonia__________________________105. Simulated Impact of Policies on North Macedonia _________________________________12 BOX 1. Gender Market Gaps in North Macedonia and the Western Balkans _________________8 IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL SHOCKS ON NORTH MACEDONIA AND THEWESTERN BALKANS_________________________________________________________________15 A. Introduction _______________________________________________________________________15B. Western Balkan Integration with the Euro Area: Descriptive Evidence______________16 C. Estimations Using a Bayesian GVAR Model ________________________________________________22D. Conclusions and Policy Implications _______________________________________________________25 FIGURES 1. Panel on Trade Linkages ___________________________________________________________________172. Panel on Migration and Remittances _______________________________________________________183. Financial Linkages __________________________________________________________________________204. Panel on the Energy Sector_________________________________________________________________215. Spillovers from Real Shocks to Eurozone Industrial Production ____________________________266. Spillovers from Euro Area Financial Shocks_________________________________________________277. Spillovers from Euro Area Interest Rate Shocks_____________________________________________278. Spillovers from Euro Area QE Shocks_______________________________________________________289. Spillovers of Energy Price Shocks___________________________________________________________28 TABLES 1. Data Description ___________________________________________________________________________232. Countries and Regions on the GVAR Model________________________________________________23 References____________________________________________________________________________________29 POPULATION DYNAMICS, LABOR MARKETINTEGRATION, AND MIGRATION The population of North Macedonia has been steadily declining over the past two decades and isprojected to continue to decline into the foreseeable future due to emigration. This paper examines theexpected costs of the population decline on potential output growth. Staff estimates that the populationdecline would create a drag on output growth of around 0.5 percentage points. Increased emigration,potentially driven by further EU integration, presents a downside risk to outlook as it could furtherworsen population dynamics. To study the impact of further EU integration, the paper employs astructural model of the European labor market with migration. Negative impacts of further EUintegration from increased emigration can be offset by increasing productivity. The paper also showsthat productivity-increasing structural reforms, active labor market policies, new business support, andlabor participation support can all boost potential output, helping to offset some of the negative impactof migration. A.Introduction 1.The population in North Macedonia has been steadily declining, largely because ofhigh emigration, and is expected to continue declining into the medium term.The 2021population census revised the population down by around 11 percent relative to its previouslyestimated values (Figure 1, left panel). The loss in population is not unique to North Macedonia asother Western