边际韧性穿越周期；AI可选性临近收获期

XPeng Margin Resilience Through the Trough; AlOptionality Nears Harvest a net loss of RMB1.78bn (vs. RMB0.66bn in 1Q25), broadly in line withwhile vehicle margin came in at 12.1% (+1.6ppt YoY, -0.9ppt QoQ). 2Q26delivery guidance is 100k-106k. The lron robot will debut in 3Q26, with massproduction by end-26. Robotaxi rollout remains focused on Guangzhou,wherelicensesaresecured Margin resilience stood out despitea soft 1Q.ASP increased to c.RMB175k (+15% YoY,+7%QoQ). while GPM reached a record 20.6%. Vehicle margin came in at 12.1%, improving YoY butdeclining QoQ due to higher memory chip and battery costs. Services and other rev rose 41.2%YoY to RMB2.0bn, while SG&A fell to RMB1.88bn (-3.2% YoY, -32.5% QoQ) on lower dealercommissions. Net loss widened to RMB1.78bn (vs. RMB0.66bn in 1Q25), broadly in line, asR&D increased to RMB2.9bn on continued Alinvestment. Sales and profit outlook. GX: June production is targeted at ~7k units, with flagship-part supply still the keybottleneck, while July capacity above 10k units is not yet realistic as mgmt sticks to ameasured ramp. Flagship trims account for >80% of orders, and mgmt is steering buyerstoward SE and EREV variants. GPM of GX is close to X9 levelsOverseas deliveries are still on track to double YoY, with international rev to stay 20%+of total in 2026Margins: FY GPMis still expectedin the mid-to-high-teens, as vehicle rev becomes a largershare of the mix from 2Q onward. Scale, overseas mix and higher-margin non-vehicle revshould help offset cost pressure.Al.1Q26 R&D of RMB2.9bn implies a RMB3bn quarterly run-rate.Cash flow: Mgmt targets positive FY FCF, with recovery from 2Q26 onward.Non-vehicle rev: Volkswagen-related rev should stay broadly flat YoY, with after-sales,financing and carbon credit rev improving alongside deliveries; large-scale Turing SoCshipmentstoVWstartfrom2Q26 Physical Alroadmap startstake clearer shape.In Robotaxi,XPeng is running a GX-based fullyredundant L4 fleet in GZ and targets fare-paying pilot operations in 3Q26, with broader partner-ledexpansionplannedfor2027.TheL4hardwarestackisalreadydecoupledfromtheGXbody.supporting rollout across models. In humanoid robots, XPeng plans to showcase the next-gen lron robot in 3Q26 andtargetmassproduction by end-2026, with initial storedeploymentbefore broader B2B rollout in 2027.Mgmt expects robot hardware margins to exceed autolevels,withsoftwaremonetizationtofollow overtime. JEF view.We revise our 2026/27E EPS to RMB-1.0/2.4 and our SOTP-based PTs to US$25.2/HKD98.3 for XPeng-US/H. While earnings volatility may persist in the near term, we believeXPeng's Al investment could begin to translate into more visible operating milestones by year-end. In our view, the market is still not fully pricing in this upside. Xiaoyi Lei* IEquity Analyst85237671126|xiaoyi.lei@jefferies.com AaronWang*IEquityAnalyst+852376711211aaron.wang@efferies.com Jefferies The Long View: XPeng . Sales momentum on an uptrend. . With city NOA reaching an inflection point of commercialization,autonomous driving (AD) development.. The partnership with VW will help Xpeng to raise its brand image globallyand tech service fees. Upside Scenario,$35, +113% Downside Scenario,$12.6, -23% Base Case,$25.2, +53% : Faster-than-expected AD development.: Our PTs of USS35/ HKD136.5 is based onSOTP valuation, assigning US$22.4/HKD87.5per shr to the EV business and valuing the AlassetsatUSs14.3/HKD55.6 . Tech-intensive brand image supports strongdomestic volume growth.. Exports remain on an uptrend.XPeng is well-positioned to capture first-mover advantages in autonomous driving.with its partnershipwithVolkswagenproviding an additional revenue stream.Our PTs of USS25.2/HKD98.3 is based onSOTP valuation, assigning USS16.7/HKD64.6per shr to the EV business and valuing the Alassets at USs9.8/HKD38.8. Setbacks in upscale strategyAutonomous driving technology developmentfalls shortof expectationsOur PTs of USs12.6/ HKD49.1 is based onSOTP valuation, assigning USS11.2/HKD43.7per shr to the EV business and valuing the Alassets at US$2.7/HKD10.6. SustainabilityMatters Catalysts : Weaker-than-expected overseas expansion. Weaker-than-expected NEV sales Top Material Issues: 1.Xpeng should comply with related regulations and actively conduct internal trainingfor privacy protection2. Product Quality & Safety is important to auto manufacturers. We are closelymonitoring quantitative and qualitative feedback on product quality. Company Targets: 1.Keep promoting the construction and operation of photovoltaic projects, which areexpected to satisfy 10% of the industrial electricity demand of the Zhaoqing plant.2.Each homogeneous material constituting automotive parts must meet therequirements of the national standard GB/T 30512 Substances Prohibited inAutomotive. Qs to Mgmt: What are you investing in to achieve your firm's ESG goals?3. How do you recycle hazardous substances from vehicles and how to monitor? Jefferies Jefferies Jeffe