为未来人工智能构建

Greater China Semiconductors Asia Pacific Equity AnalystCharlie.Chan@morganstanley.comDaniel Yen, CFA Build for Future AlInfrastructure - CPU, GPU,ASIC, Optical, and China Chips Equity AnalystDaniel.Yen@morganstanley.comMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ Equity AnalystDaisy.Dai@morganstanley.comMORGAN STANLEY TAIWAN LIMITED+ Tiffany Yeh Equity AnalystTfany@morgataney.comLucas Wang Research AssociateLucas.Wang@morganstanley.comMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Ethan jia Research AssociateEthan.Jia@morganstanley.comHenry Zhao Research AssociateHenry.Zhao@morganstanley.com Asia Pacific Industry View Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions onand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Top ideas: · Al: MediaTek(Top Pick), TSMC, SMIC, Aspeed, Alchip, KYEC, ASE, FOCl, ASMPT, AllRing:Memory:Macronix(TopPick),APMemory,NanyaTech,Winbond,GigaDevice.ChinaAl/Semis/WFE:Iluvatar,Cambricon,NAURATech,AMEC,USi.TestingEguipmentandConsumables:Winway,MPl,HonPrecision,Gudeng.Maturenodes:UMC ·EW:GUC,OmniVision,Phison,MetaX,Realtek.UW:WINSemi,Silergy,GlobalWafers,ASMedia Long-termdemanddrivers: : Chip inflation: We expect “price elasticity" to affect demand for tech products. Rising wafer, OSAT and memory: Al cannibalization: Besides demand weakness (Al to replace some human jobs), we see the semi supply chainalso prioritizingAl semis over non-Alsemis, e.g., T-Glass and memory shortage Al Semi Supply Chain and Niche Memory We expecttheAl semiTAM to reachnearlyUS$753bnby2030 Top4csPs(Amazon,Google,MicrosoftandMeta)capex Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch.e=MorganStanleyResearchestimates MorganStanleycloudcapextrackerestimatesnearlyUS$685bn of cloud capex spending in 2026(PurelyTop1olistedglobal CSPs; nosovereignAl) CPUforN1X RTXSpark(N1X)providedbyASUS(availablein3Q26) performancex86CPU Vera CPU cores are not split across chiplets,enablingfastercore-to-coreconnection Source:Nvidia,Morgan StanleyResearch (e)estimates Source:ChinaFlashMarket,MorganStanleyResearchestimates. Morgan Stanley Al ASIC, CPO and Chip Testing .Killer apps . Competition. Sovereign :Growth limitations: 1.Budget2.Energy -> in the US3.ChipCapacity->in China4. Regulation Semiconductorsolutions:Moore'sLaw: CoWoS/SolC·HBM· CPO: Custom chip: GaN HVDC 800V Growth perspective: 1. Inference vs. Training Al semis2.Edgevs.CloudAl semis3.Custom ASIC vs. AI GPU TPUForecastsfromMSAsiaResearchteam Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates Intel'sEMiBcaneasilysupportlargerchipswithmorereticles (>12)if itssupply chaincanexecutewell Source: Intel,Yole, Morgan StanleyResearch Al/HPCtestsocketneedshigherpincountsvs.traditionalconsumertechapplications Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates We expect the overall handler market to TAMin2027e,vs0.4%in2020 China Semis: OSAT, Compound, MCU, and Al GPU SIcCmarket share riseinSiC substratemarket (2025) Source:Yole, Companydata, Morgan StanleyResearch estimate (e)estimates in2030e(US$58bn/US$67bn) Source:Companydata, Taobao, Morgan StanleyResearch. Step1:Ifone computedieis notpowerful,packagemore dies intoasinglechip. Step3:Ifonefabisnotsufficient,expandmanufacturingcapacity Cambricon'sproductsandspecs financialadvisortoASMPTLimited(ASMPT)inrelationtoitsassessmentofstrategicoptionsforits SMTSolutions Segment(the"Assessment"),asannouncedonJanuary21,2026.There is no assurance that theAssessment will result in a transaction, nor asto the timing or terms thereof. ASMPThas agreed to pay fees to Morgan Stanley for itsfinancial services.Pleasereferto the notes at the end of the report. designated thereunder.U.S.persons may be prohibited frombuying certain securities ofentities named in this report. Readers are solely responsible for ensuring that theirinvestment activities arecarried out in compliancewith applicablelaws. controlrestrictions.Readers are solelyresponsibleforensuring that theirinvestment ortrade activities are carriedout incompliancewithapplicablelaws. of such order.U.S.persons maybe prohibited from engaging in certain transactions orotherwise require certain othertransactions benotifiedtotheU.s.DepartmentofTreasury.Readers are solely responsiblefor ensuring that their investment ortradeactivitiesarecarriedoutincompliancewithapplicablelaws. The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared or are disseminated by Morgan Stanley Asia Limit