2025能源转型的未来：为碎片化世界构建韧性能源系统研究报告

Building resilient energy systemsfor a fragmented world Contents IntroductionBy Julia Binder, Professor of Business Transformation, IMD, and Knut Haanaes,Professor of Strategy and Lundin Sustainability Chair at IMD4How to surf the winds of changeBy Julia Binder, Professor of Business Transformation, IMD, and Knut Haanaes,Professor of Strategy and Lundin Sustainability Chair at IMD6Energy independence: A new variable in the energy trilemmaBy Ann Christin Andersen, CEO of Norwegian Energy Partners and IMDExecutive in Residence10Geopolitics meets the grid: Rethinking clean energy business modelsBy Simon J Evenett, Professor of Geopolitics and Strategy, IMDBox: Debunking five common myths of the energy transition14Oil companies face a redefined role as energy transition accelerates despitechallengesAn interview with Jarand Rystad, founder and CEO of Rystad Energy20The energy transition is unstoppableBy Sverre Alvik, Vice President and Director, Energy Transition Outlook at DNV26Why the global transition is entering its next, more disciplined phaseAn interview with Henrik Sætness, Executive Vice President of Statkraft30Greening AI: Turning a digital dilemma into a sustainable opportunityBy Michael Wade, TONOMUS Professor of Strategy and Digital, IMD34Powering the future responsibly with AI and sustainable infrastructureBy Per Christian Honningsvaag, EMEA Business Leader for Energy &Resources at Microsoft38ConclusionBy Julia Binder, Professor of Business Transformation, IMD, and Knut Haanaes,Professor of Strategy and Lundin Sustainability Chair at IMD42 Introduction Meanwhile, the rise of artificial intelligence isreshaping both sides of the energy equation. AI-driven data centers add new demand pressures butalso offer unprecedented tools for optimization,such as accelerating permitting, strengtheninggrid management, enhancing energy trading, andspeeding scientific discovery. The world will needmore power, but also smarter power. The global energy transition has entered a morecomplex phase. What once appeared to be a linearshift toward decarbonization is now shaped by a widerset of forces: geopolitical fragmentation, supply-chain concentration, fiscal realism, surging electricitydemand, and the accelerating impact of digitalizationand artificial intelligence. These forces are redefininghow energy is produced and consumed, but also hownations and companies assess risk, competitiveness,and long-term advantage. Across these dynamics lies a central reality: theenergy transition is not slowing down. It is becomingmore strategic. Mature technologies, like solar, wind,batteries, electric vehicles, and heat pumps, continueto scale rapidly. More complex solutions (hydrogen,carbon capture, advanced materials) are advancingmore slowly and unevenly. And energy markets areshifting from an era of growth at all costs to an eradefined by optimization, resilience, and value creation. The traditional energy trilemma (security of supply,affordability, and sustainability) no longer capturesthe full picture. A fourth dimension has emerged:the need for energy resilience and independence.Governments and businesses must ensure thatenergy systems can withstand geopolitical shocks,resource bottlenecks, and technological disruptionswhile remaining affordable and low-carbon. Thetransition is no longer just about cleaner energy; it isabout building systems that are robust, diversified,and strategically aligned with national interests. In this report, we examine how geopolitics,technology, finance, and industrial strategy arereshaping the transition; how companies are adaptingtheir business models and supply chains; and wherethe next decade of opportunity lies. The directionis clear: towards cleaner, more resilient, and moreelectrified energy systems. The challenge now ismanaging the transition with discipline and capturingthe competitive advantages that come with leadershipin the new energy economy. This new realism does not diminish the momentumof clean energy. On the contrary, the structuraldrivers of the transition are stronger than ever.Renewables are now the cheapest source of newpower generation across most of the world, attractingmore than double the investment going into fossilfuels. Solar capacity is expanding at unprecedentedspeed, battery deployment is scaling tenfold,and electrification is advancing rapidly acrosstransport, heating, and industry. In many markets,economic forces, more than policy, are pushing cleantechnologies to the forefront. Julia Binder Professor of Business Transformation, IMD Knut Haanaes Professor of Strategy and Lundin Sustainability Chairat IMD But speed alone isn’t enough. Supply-chainvulnerabilities, particularly the dominance of China incritical minerals and clean-tech manufacturing, haveexposed new strategic dependencies. Energy securityconcerns – from Russian gas to potential cyber-interference in grid equipment – are forcing countriesand companies to rethink where and how they sourcees