A股情绪走弱，K型宏观图景持续

Laura WangEquity Strategist Chloe LiuEquity Strategist A-share Sentiment Weakened asK-Shaped Macro Picture Persists Chloe.Liu1@morganstanley.comVicky Wu Vicky.Wu@morgan ongoingK-shapedfundamentals.Weexpect market dynamicstobecome clearerand smootheraroundorafterthe summer,although near-term volatility may persist. We remain overweighton A-shares vs. offshore. decreased 4ppt vs. the prior cutoff date (May 27), to 62%, and the weighted MSASI1MMA rose 3ppt over the same period, to 59%. ADT for ChiNext and A-shareddecreased 9% (to Rmb779bn) and 6% (to Rmb3,019bn), respectively, vs. theprevious cycle, while equityfutures turnover and margin transactions outstandingremained largely unchanged. The 3O-day RSI increased 1% over the same period(May 28-June 3).Consensus earnings estimate revision breadth stayed negative andremained the same vs. Last week. Southbound recorded net inflows of US$4.5bn during May 28-June 3:YTD netinflows reached US$35.3bn, and MTD net inflows totaled US$3.3bn. *Note:As announced on July26,2024,byHKEX,Shanghai Stock Exchange,andShenzhen Stock Exchange, the publication of Northbound daily purchaseand salesdata was terminatedas of August19,2024.Northbound dailybuying and sellingdatawere lastmadeavailableonAugust16,2024 Macro data indicate widening K-shaped demand amid elevated oil prices: MayManufacturing PMI slipped 0.3ppt, to 50%, as the market expected. Consumptionexport orders and energy-intensive production weakened; meanwhile high-endmanufacturing held up. Infrastructure still lacks policy traction. On the other hand,inflation momentum remains contained: PPI MoM slipped to 1% (vs. 1.7% in April) asthe oil price spike moderated, although YoY could rise to 4% on a low base.According to our economics team for China, weak April-May data point to risingdownside pressures on 2Q GDP. They expect policymakers to re-accelerate fiscalrollout from June, with targeted infrastructure support to prevent growth fromfalling materially below 4.5%. 2026 Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a resultinvestors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. Continued in the following section. For analyst certification andother important disclosuresreferto the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications witha subject company,public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Overview (continued) capex, CNY appreciation, and easing price competition among Internet platforms. misses, July HK IPO unlocking, fading Fed cut expectations, as well as ongoing uncertaintyover the Hormuz situation. Consequently, the market setup - especially for the offshoremarket (Hong Kong + ADRs) - could stay relatively volatile and then gradually stabilizeafter summer. hard tech, IPO catalysts, and National Team support. moderate exposure to Financials and yield plays. Read more: China Equity Strategy Mid-year Outlook:Forging New Horizons (13May 2026) MSASI Methodology SentimentandTechnical Signals (270ct2025) dimension of investor sentiment and market activity normalization. This approach helps reduce noise from high-frequency movements andbetter reflects whether sentiment is improving or deteriorating over the medium term. (Max (Last 100 Days)-Min (Last 100 Days) stronger or more active sentiment conditions. 1. ChiNext Turnover: Daily trading turnover on ChiNext, normalized using the 100-daymoving min-max method (available daily; weekly closing values used for analysis). 2. A-share Turnover: Daily turnover of all A-shares, normalized using the 100-day movingmin-max method (available daily; weekly closing values used for analysis) 3. Equity Index Futures Turnover: Daily turnover of equity index futures, normalizedusing the 100-day moving min-max method (available daily; weekly closing values used foranalysis). 4. Northbound Turnover: Daily Stock Connect northbound trading turnover, normalizedusing the 100-day moving min-max method (available daily; weekly closing values used foranalysis). 5. Margin Financing Outstanding: Total margin transaction balances, normalized usingthe 100-day moving min-max method (available daily; weekly closing values used foranalysis). 6.New Accounts Registered with the Shanghai Stock Exchange: Monthly number ofnew retail accounts registered with the Shanghai Exchange, normalized using the 100-daymoving min-max method (available monthly) 7. 30-Day RSI (cSI 300): Relative Strength Index over a 30-day period for CSI 300(available daily; weekly closing values used). 8. Number of Limit-Up A-shares: Daily count of stocks hi