将会有流动性！但会有传播吗？

There Will Be Liquidity!But Will There BeTransmission? Gregorio Impavido and Shuyu Wang WP/26/109 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2026JUN IMF Working Paper Middle East and Central Asia Department There Will Be Liquidity! But Will There Be Transmission?Prepared by Gregorio Impavido and Shuyu Wang* Authorized for distribution by Amina LahrecheJune2026 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:This paper examines the impact of voluntary and involuntary excess liquidity on monetary policyeffectiveness and inflation in Kazakhstan. Consistent with first-principles predictions, we find that voluntaryliquidity held for precautionary motives is (i) negatively related to the opportunity cost of holding liquid assetsand to the level of mandatory reserve requirements; (ii) positively related to average liquidity outflows, proxiedby transactional demand for cash; and (iii) ambiguously affected by the magnitude and volatility of the businesscycle. We further show that higher voluntary liquidity weakens monetary policy transmission and increasesexchange rate pass-through to inflation. In contrast, involuntary liquidity hampers monetary policy effectivenessno matter its level and it increases average inflation primarily through its influence on the formation of inflationexpectations. Overall, the results suggest that reforms aimed at reducing both forms of liquidity would enhancemonetary policy effectiveness and,ceteris paribus, reduce inflation. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Impavido, G. and S. Wang (2026)There Will Be Liquidity! But Will There BeTransmission?IMF working paper No WP/26/109 There Will Be Liquidity! ButWill There Be Transmission? Prepared by Gregorio Impavido and Shuyu Wang1 Table of Contents Page 1Introduction1 2Literature review2 3A simple model of reserve management5 4Select extensions to the base model64.1Mandatory reserve requirements6 4.2Liquidity risk74.3Business cycle8 5Estimating voluntary excess liquidity9 6Liquidity and monetary policy12 7Conclusions15 References18 Appendix IFigures and tables22 Appendix IIData description and sources30 List of Figures 1Liquidity in Kazakhstan222Liquidity - cross country comparison233TONIA rate falling at the bottom of the interest band234Headline inflation245Excess liquidity246Required reserves257Currency in circulation258Lending rate269Actual and fitted excess liquidity values28 List of Tables 1Demand for liquidity - OLS regressions262Demand for liquidity - stationarity273Demand for liquidity - parameter stability274Demand for liquidity - diagnostic tests275Monetary policy - constrained OLS regression286Monetary policy - constrained threshold regressions297Monetary policy - linear restrictions across liquidity regions29 1Introduction The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) operates an inflation-targeting framework, usingits policy rate—set within a symmetric corridor—as the main instrument to keep annualheadline inflation near the 5 percent medium term target.As of end-December 2025, thepolicy rate stood at 18 percent, the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) reverse repo facility,at the upper bound of the corridor, provided overnight liquidity at 19 percent, and theovernight deposit facility, at the lower bound of the corridor, absorbed excess liquidity at17 percent.Since 2023, surplus liquidity has been primarily absorbed through daily 7-daydeposit auctions conducted at the NBK’s initiative (Figure 1), on a full-allotment basis at thepolicy rate. OtOther liquidity absorption tools include notes at various maturities. In early2026, the NBK expanded its short-term note issuance, capping 1-month notes at 1 trilliontenge and 3-month notes at 500 billion tenge. Policy rate decisions and open market operations are aimed at steering short-term inter-bank rates around the base rate. In the absence of a reliable OTC-based inter-bank bench-mark rate, the Tenge Over Night Index Average (TONIA) is currently the primary operationaltarget of monetary policy for the NBK. It is a risk-free, weighted average, interest rate forone-day (overnight) repo transactions secured by government securities on the KASE. Whilethe TONIA cannot directly affect variables such as the general price level, it can shape marketexpectations and financial conditions. In this manner, the operational target transmits pol-icy signals via market interest rates, especially deposit and lending rates, thereby influencingprice-setting behavior. Monetary policy has been implemented in the c