ESS拉动与电动汽车触底；为上行催化剂做好准备

EquitiesElectronic Equipment &Instruments ESS pullandEV bottoming; brace for upsidecatalysts Korea ◆USESS battery marketistiltingtowardsKoreancompanies–new order contracts and market share gains to continue Yushin Park*Analyst, Korea Industrials & UtilitiesThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Seoul Securities Branchyushin.park@kr.hsbc.com ◆Well-knownEV weakness; limited downside amid improvingsentiment with TCOs approachingparityfrom high oil prices Chan Park*Research Associate, Korea Autos & Financials The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Seoul Securities Branchchan.park@kr.hsbc.com ◆SDI (Buy)–our preferred battery pick asakey ESSpivotstock;LGES (Buy)–catch-up and EV betaopportunity Cyclebottoming:TheEV slump is well-known,andwe believe the cycle isat a lowpoint, as supply-side discipline begins to ease oversupply.Higher for longeroil prices(6 May 2026)also improvethetotal cost of ownership and consumer sentiment forEVs. Moreover, strong energy storage system (ESS) demand and leadingplayers’ * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations StructuralESSgrowth:Webelieve structural ESS growth shouldalsohelp bridgetheEV demand gap.The fast-growing US market is structurallyrotatingtowardsKoreanplayers, supported by:1)localised production,2)geopolitical supply risks, and3)policytailwinds(tariffs, AMPC and ITC).Weestimate that US-madeKoreanbatteriescanlower total ESS project capex byc16% versusChina-made alternatives(seeExhibit7).Additionally, strategic security of US-based production makes Korean suppliers an Sector catalysts:Short-term earnings drivers are:1)battery price hikesamid highermetal prices,2)stronger monthly EV sales due to higherpumpprices,and3) potential OEM compensation for underutilised committed volumes. Medium-to long-term driversare:4)incremental ESS order wins driven byAIDCexpansion,5)UTR improvement from supply-side discipline (capacity cutsandlower investments), and PreferSDIasakey ESS pivot stockandhighlightLGES asanEV beta play:Welift ESS-related earningsestimatesacross the board onstrongdemand in the USandmarket share gains.SDI (006400 KP,Buy, TPKRW900kfrom KRW520k)is ourpreferredstock,givenpotential upside to its ESS business,afaster recovery in smallbatteries, andanimproving balance sheet,as well as monetisation of SDC stakes. Our 2027-28eOP estimates for SDIare44%and23% above Bloomberg consensus,respectively.WealsohighlightLGES (373220 KP,Buy, TPKRW550kfromKRW500k) With this report Yushin Park assumesprimary coverage of Samsung SDI and LGEnergy Solution. Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited, Seoul SecuritiesBranch Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications intheDisclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Keydownsiderisks Keydownsiderisksto our assumptions andestimatesare regulatory changes. The mostimportant ESS market for Korean battery makers istheUS market. Accordingly, Koreanbatterymakers will be negatively impacted iftheUS lowerstariffsfor Chinese imported batteries. As for ESS boom–USstructurallyrotating towards Korean makers Policy tailwinds to support Korean OEM inroads into the US ESS market The implementation of the US “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) is altering the global batterysupply chain, creating distinct advantages for different players in the ESS market. TheOBBBAimposes stricter limits on Chinese content for ITC (Investment Tax Credit) eligibility, which isreshapingthecompetitive environment. This policy environment is especiallyfavourablefor While China-made batteries have a lower base cost, they face:1) tariffs (43.4%) andalackaccess to 2) the 30% ITC,and 3) USD35-45/kWh AMPC benefits available to US-madebatteries. Incorporating these threefactors, we estimate that US-made batteries can lower totalESS project capex by 16% versusChina-made alternatives. Although the Chinese option could Source:BNEFestimates(November2025) Source:BNEFestimates(November2025) Source:BNEFestimates(November2025) Source: BNEFestimates(December2025) The high degree of manufacturing fungibility between EV and ESS cell architectures grantsbattery manufacturers the operational flexibility to pivot capacity from EVs to ESS. Equippedwitharegional presence and production footprints amid policy tailwinds, Korean battery makersare focusing on the US market, the second largest ESS market following China. According to Webelieve structural ESS growth shouldalsohelp bridgetheEV demand gap. The fast-growing US market is structurallyrotatingtowardsKorean players, supported by:1)localisedproduction,2)geopolitical supply risks, and3)policytailwinds(tariffs, AMPC and ITC).Weestimate that US-madeKoreanbatteries can lower total ESS project capex by 16% versusChina-made alternati