博通（AVGO）：2026财年第二季度回顾 - 拭目以待...

Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com Price Target AVGO 550.00 USD(525.00OLD) Broadcom (AVGO): FQ226 recap - Wait for it... Broadcom’s FQ226 earnings were solid ($22.2B/$2.44 vs the Street $22.1B/$2.39) withsemis better and software slightly worse than expected. AI semis were ~$10.8B, up 143%YoY, above expectations ($10.7B); non-AI semis also strengthened. FQ326 guidance was mixed. Revenue and EPS outlook beat but driven by SW and non-AIsemis with AI semis (while objectively strong) seen a touch below (overall results at $29.4B/~$3.25 vs Street $28.6B/$3.15). AI is seen at ~$16B, up >200% YoY but below the street at~$17.2B, (though implied FQ4 AI at ~$21B appears in-line). Software at ~$8.9B is seen wellabove the street at ~$7.6B as agentic AI and consequent CPU demand drives VMWare sales.Gross margins are seen down ~300bps to ~74%, a bit below consensus due to product mix. AI revenues can of course be lumpy. But coupled with the company’s decision to reiterate,rather than raise, their FY27 $100B AI guidance the stock took a hit in the aftermarket. Thatbeing said, up 200% YoY in Q3 is still up 200%, and $100B next year is nothing to sneezeat (and likely still conservative). While 2027 appears 2H-weighted as multiple programsramp, this also suggesting a potentially materially higher run-rate into 2028, accompanied bystronger baseline growth from the non-AI businesses (SW, other semis) in the meantime. Andwhile we get the complaints on (slightly) declining gross margins as AI ASICs ramp, operatingleverage is clearly offsetting (and we feel bad complaining about gross margins that remainwell into the 70s anyway...) We suspect the shares may take a pause for the next couple of quarters. But the story getsinteresting again once we enter 2027. And at the end of the day we have a company growingrevenues and EPS >50%, with gross/operating margins in the 70s/60s, and potentiallytrading at a teens P/FE in an environment that is only getting stronger. If we have to wait aquarter or two for that story to re-emerge that’s OK, we’ll wait for it. Raising estimates, rolling valuation horizon forward, lowering multiple from 30x to 25x giventhe need to wait a bit. PT to $550 (25x on FY27/28 avg EPS of $22.17). We rate AVGO OP. Investment Implications beyond, bolstered by software, cash deployment, and superb margins & FCF. DETAILS For the most recent version of our model please click here:AVGO. Broadcom’s FQ226 earnings were solid, with a modest beat on revenue and EPS ($22.2B/$2.44 vs the Street$22.1B/$2.39) with semis better and software slightly worse than expected (semis $15.0B vs Street $14.6B,software $7.18B vs Street $7.23B). Strength was driven by AI semis, which were ~$10.8B in the quarter and up 143%YoY, above expectations ($10.67B); non-AI semis were also up QoQ and YoY as the company sees signs of recovery.Gross margins at 77.1% were up ~10bps QoQ and were above expectations; Opex came in lower than expected. •Revenues and EPS were$22.2B/$2.44, a bit above the Street at $22.1B/$2.39 (Exhibit 1). •PF Revenue by segment:Semiconductor sales were $15.0B, above Street expectations at $14.6B and our estimate at$14.8B; infrastructure software was $7.18B, slightly below consensus at ~$7.23B and our estimate at $7.20B; (Exhibit 2–Exhibit 6). •AI revenues in the quarter were ~$10.8B up 143% YoY,and up vs ~$8.4B last quarter, above both our (~$10.70B) andsell-side expectations (~$10.67B). AI Networking revenues were strong at almost 40% of AI sales. •Within semiconductors,revenue rose 79% YoY. The company didn’t provide revenue numbers for each subsegment,though qualitatively noted increases in storage, broadband, and networking partially offset by seasonal wireless declines.Overall non-AI semis up ~6% YoY, and up sequentially to ~$4.2B from $4.1B last quarter, and above consensus at ~$4.0B, asthe company noted signs of recovery. •Segment gross margins were ~70% (up ~100 bps YoY) with operating margins of ~62% (Exhibit 7andExhibit 8). •Within infrastructure software,sales rose 9% YoY to $7.18B and were slightly below consensus at ~$7.23B, up ~6%QoQ and slightly below their prior outlook of ~$7.2B. •Software gross margins were 93% with operating margins of ~79% (Exhibit 7). •PF gross margins came in at 77.1%,above consensus (76.8%) (Exhibit 8). •PF Opex of $2,181Mwas below consensus ($2,262M) (Exhibit 1). •PF EBIT margins came in at 67.3%, up vs 66.4% last quarterand above consensus at 66.6% (Exhibit 8). •EBITDA margins were 68.7% in the quarter,above guidance of ~68%. •Free cash flow totaled $10,262M, with FCF margins in the quarter at 46.3%(Exhibit 9). The company repurchased $600M worth of shares in the quarterand paid ~$3.1B in dividends. FQ326 guidance was mixed. Revenue and EPS outlook beat overall though on a much better than expected softwareoutlo