应用材料公司（AMAT）：2026财年第二季度回顾 - “众人齐聚，年度盛会，继续推进”

Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com Price Target Applied Materials (AMAT): FQ226 recap - "Everybody's here, thisis the jam of the year, push it up..." AMAT's FQ2 results were very good ($7,910M/ $2.86 vs Street $7,674M/$2.68), withstrong Equipment sales (especially Foundry/Logic). Services were also above consensus,with Other (which now includes Display) mostly in-line. Gross margin of ~50.0% was aboveconsensus. FQ3 guidance was extremely strong ($8,950M /$3.36 vs Street at $8,153M/$2.88),well above on equipment and also above on services, and appears likely to continue withequipment sales now expected to exceed 30% growth for the calendar year (suggesting2HC26 revenues of $14.4-$15B, well above Street). While they did not provide a specificWFE target for the year they expect leading-edge foundry/logic, DRAM and advancedpackaging to grow strongly, contributing to >80% of WFE growth in CY26, and having asimilar profile in CY27. Management expects their China business and their ICAPS businessworld-wide to be flat to slightly up in the calendar year. Gross margins were guided to~50.1%, up ~10bps QoQ, and above consensus. AMAT’s inflection appears to be building momentum as customers work to squeeze anythingthey can into the current global cleanroom footprint. And visibility is stretching out as largecustomers, building out new capacity, work with them on rolling 8-quarter forecasts givingmanagement more confidence that the current (powerful) upcycle in equipment could indeedbe multi-year as AI pushes chip, wafer, and equipment demand higher, and driving evenfurther acceleration with 2H equipment outlook now likely up mid-teens HoH (off a higherbase) and up 45-50% YoY with more momentum to come. Given their positioning in key markets (leading edge foundry/logic, DRAM, packaging, allareas that should see outsized growth at this point) along with lower China exposure vs peersand cheaper valuation AMAT seems to be a preferred way to play a semicap cycle that we aregrowing increasingly bullish on. Raising estimates and rolling valuation horizon forward toavg FY27/28 (vs FY27 prior); taking PT to $525 (30x, unchanged, on avg FY27/28 EPS of$17.12). We rate AMAT Outperform. Investment Implications DETAILS For our updated AMAT model, please click here. AMAT's FQ2 results were very good ($7,910M/ $2.86 vs Street $7,674M/$2.68), with strong Equipment sales(especially Foundry/Logic). Services were also above consensus, with Other (which now includes Display) mostly in-line. Gross margin of ~50.0% was above consensus. •Sales were$7,910M, above consensus at $7,674M and guidance ($7,650M) (Exhibit 1). •Systems revenue(which as of last quarter now includes 200mm sales that were formerly slotted into the services segment),was $5,965M (up 16% QoQ and 10% YoY), above Bloomberg consensus of $5,792M with operating margins of 35.2%(Exhibit 2).•By end market,foundry/logic equipment sales were $3,997M (+25% QoQ, +12% YoY), DRAM sales were $1,730M (-1%QoQ, +19% YoY), and Flash sales were $239M (+16% QoQ, -37% YoY) (Exhibit 3). Versus consensus, Foundry/Logic wasabove ($3,669M), DRAM was below ($1,868M), and NAND was below ($284M).•Services revenue(which now excludes 200mm equipment sales) was $1,665M (+7% QoQ, and +17% YoY) aboveBloomberg consensus of $1,609M with operating margins of 29.2%.•Other revenue (incl. Display)was $280M (-10% QoQ, flat YoY), mostly in-line with Bloomberg consensus of $277M withoperating margins of -20%.•By region, China accounted for 26% of revenue (down from 30% last quarter), Taiwan was 27%, Korea 20%, and theUnited States was 12% with Japan, Southeast Asia and Europe at 8%, 2%, and 4% respectively (Exhibit 4). Excluding Otherrevenue (which includes Display), China was ~24% of sales vs ~27% last quarter.•Gross Marginsof 50.0% were above consensus at 49.3% (Exhibit 5).•Opexwas $1,417M, inline to a hair above consensus at $1,412M.•Operating Marginswere 32.1%, above consensus of 30.9% (Exhibit 5).•Tax ratewas 11.0% and slightly below consensus of 11.3%.•EPS for the quarterwas $2.86, above consensus ($2.68) and guidance ($2.64) on higher revenues and margins. FQ3 guidance was extremely strong ($8,950M /$3.36 vs Street at $8,153M/$2.88), well above on equipment andalso above on services, and appears likely to continue with equipment sales now expected to exceed 30% growthfor the calendar year (suggesting 2HC26 revenues of $14.4-$15B, well above Street). While they did not provide aspecific WFE target for the year they expect leading-edge foundry/logic, DRAM and advanced packaging to growstrongly, contributing to >80% of WFE growth in CY26, and having a similar profile in CY27. Management expectstheir China business and their ICAPS business world-wide to be flat to slightly up in the calendar year. Gross marginswere guided to ~50.1%, up ~10bps QoQ, and ab