Adobe 2Q26预览：多个动态因素

Mark L. Moerdler, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8506mark.moerdler@bernsteinsg.com Firoz Valliji, CFA+1 917 344 8316firoz.valliji@bernsteinsg.com Shelly Tang, CFA+1 917 344 8342shelly.tang@bernsteinsg.com Price Target ADBE 447.00 USD Adobe 2Q26 preview: Multiple moving parts Adobe will report its 2Q26 results next week on Thursday, June 11th. Given the multipleevents and announcements (Semrush acquisition, Buyback program, Adobe Summit) post1Q26, we thought it is helpful to lay out the potential impact of these events on 2Q results. Taken together, we believe that Semrush plus the 1Q beat should boost FY26 revenueguidance up by roughly $400M, or adding 1.6pts to the growth guidance. While Semrushwould have minimal impact on the EPS, we believe the 1Q beat and the $25B announcedbuyback program should help Adobe deliver beyond their EPS guidance for the upcomingquarters. While we would love to have more data that validates that Adobe is an AI winner we do notexpect any meaningful additional data as management is likely waiting for the new CEO. Adobe has been sitting in the penalty box for over a year now, given the concerns aroundseats due to competition and disruption from AI. While we acknowledge the validity insome of these concerns, we believe the seat risk argument is widely known and likely overpenalized in the enterprise segment. Given the beaten down valuation at 11x P/E (a third ofits valuation in early 2024), we believe the setup is favorable for the stock and should Adobedeliver stabilized results going forward, should position the stock well to slowly gain back itsground. Investment Implications Adobe is a show-me story with investors looking for proof that Adobe is an AI winner. ADBEneeds to deliver a clean quarter, beat and raise and additional AI adoption data would help. VALUATION COMPS TABLE DETAILS Adobe will report its 2Q26 results next week Thursday, June 11th. Given the multiple events and announcements (Semrushacquisition, Buyback program, Adobe Summit) post 1Q26, we thought it is helpful to lay out the potential impact of these eventson 2Q results, especially concerning FY26 guidance, which management promised to give an update after Semrush’s close. While we would love to have more data that validates that Adobe is an AI winner we do not expect any meaningful additionaldata as management is likely waiting for the new CEO. The announcement of a new CEO, with the right credentials and anAI forward / innovation driven mindset would help the stock and increase investor confidence in the name. Couple that withadditional disclosures, which are repeat for many quarters and include historical data would really help take Adobe out of the AI-loser penalty box they have fallen into. We would note that software is now “bouncing along a bottom” and as seen in multiple software names, if Adobe could delivera clean quarter with a beat and raise we could see an outsizes move in the stock. The buyback will likely help and will increaseEPS, but investors are looking for validation of the stability of the business and we hope that management is able to deliver aclean quarter with a beat and raise. 1. SEMRUSH ACQUISITION Adobe acquired Semrush for $1.9B in cash, which was officially closed on April 28th. Semrush generated $444M revenue inFY2025 growing 17% Y/Y (Exhibit 2). Financially it should have 1-month impact on Adobe’s 2Q results (Mar-May) and 7-monthimpact on the new FY26 guidance (which ends in November), adding over 1pts of top-line growth contribution. We will calculatethe impact on guidance after considering other factors. Why Semrush? Traditionally, marketing tools are a fragmented space and SEO were sold as separate solutions. In other words, marketers woulduse a marketing platform (that hosts their data) and SEO separately (which relies on mostly external data). With the agenticworkflows in the future (such as the CX Enterprise announced at Adobe Summit this year), agent need both customer data andexternal data in one place to generate better insights and make better recommendations. Therefore it makes sense for Adobe toincorporate an SEO tool into its platform to and incorporate the SEO insights into the marketer workflow. Additionally, note that the search landscape is changing rapidly with LLM’s becoming a key channel. Therefore, just having thetraditional SEO is no longer enough. Adobe is building its own LLM Optimizer and together with traditional SEO, bringing thesearch optimization onto its marketing platform (Adobe Experience). 2. $25B BUYBACK PROGRAM (UNTIL 2030) At Summit, Adobe also announced a new $25B buyback program through April 2030, which Adobe can sufficiently fund withits own FCF. While we do not know if Adobe has exercised this buyback this quarter and how much it has purchased, at currentstock price this equates to roughly 25% of all shares outstanding, which is very sizable. We believe this program is a statementfrom management of its commitment to consistently