消费被颠覆：安利普2025全球消费者展望

Body•Bullet−Second Bullet•IntroSubheading 1SUBHEADING 2HEADING 1Spending,Disrupted HEADING 2NotesAlixPartners’ 2025Global Consumer Outlook December 2024 Introduction We hope you find thisreport valuable. The global consumer spending landscape is morecomplex than ever as we prepare to enter 2025.Businesses and consumers alike continue to grapplewith the aftershocks of the past few years, marked bysignificant disruption driven by economic andgeopolitical shifts. If you’d like to explore further consumer analysisfrom our data set by country, sector, or consumerdemographic, our authors are available to discussthe findings in more detail. The persistent impacts of legacy inflation remain akey driver of consumer sentiment in many regions, aselevated costs of goods and interest rates show littlesigns of easing in certain markets. While economicpolicies such as the increase in the U.K. NationalMinimum Wage and National Living Wage may bringshort-term relief for some, they also present the riskof reigniting inflationary pressures for others. About this study Research for Spending, Disrupted: AlixPartners' 2025Global Consumer Outlook was conducted betweenSeptember and October 2024. Survey respondentscomprised 15,434 consumers from nine countries—China, France, Germany, Italy, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland,United Arab Emirates, the U.K. and the U.S. Concurrently, the consumer ecosystem evolves at arapid pace. Digital technologies, AI-enhancedshopping experiences, and sustainability priorities arereshaping how consumers think and act. This report examines the global consumer spendingoutlook for 2025, leveraging insights from more than15,000 consumers. Will spending patterns continue tobe suppressed after a muted 2024? If so, why? Andhow will consumers keep their finances undercontrol? In answering these questions, we aim toequip business leaders with actionable insights tostay ahead in this dynamic environment. Global spending intentions for 2025 Globally, a cautious and prudent outlook prevails, though not withoutpockets of optimism. 31% of consumers are planning further spending cuts,although a considerable 47% plan to maintain their current spending levels.Just 19% say they will spend more, equivalent to a net intention for reducedspending of 12 percentage points (ppt). -12 ppts Anticipated global net consumerintent for reduced spending in 2025 Spending is trending downwards in the U.S. and Europe; consumers inthe Middle East and China display more optimism. Europeanconsumers In the U.S. and Europe, consumers continue to show restraint in spendingplans, with more than one third of consumers intending to cut back, while inthe Middle East, we see a relatively balanced outlook. An anticipated 10percentage point net increase towards spending more in China appearsmore positive still, yet this should be contextualized by the impact ofinflationary pressures (particularly groceries) and low levels of optimism forthe future (unattainable property prices, for example) inspiring spending onmore immediate gratification. are most likely to say they willspend less in 2025 (net) 2023 report recap: What did consumers tell us they would dothisyear? 21%would spendmore Only 15%would spend lesson groceries 41%would spendabout the same 36%would spend less in2024 than 2023 45%of consumers aged 55and over said they wouldspend less in 2024 ~40% 33% said they would spend less onout-of-home entertainment,dining out, travel, or non-food items of 18- to 24-year-olds said they wouldspend more in 2024, the highestpercentage of any age group Regional spotlight:Middle East The outlook in the Middle East diverges from the West's spendingcontraction, with more positive sentiment among consumers in SaudiArabia and the U.A.E. Consumers’ spending intentions here for 2025 display a 6 ppt netpositive trend towards spending more, in contrast with their U.S. andEuropean counterparts. This positivity is driven by a more positive macroeconomic outlook,and a lesser inclination or perceived necessity to save. Thismanifests in increased anticipated spending across all sectors,particularly groceries and clothing, fueled not only by inflationarypressures but also premium purchases and a general optimisticwillingness to spend. Dining out has become more common in the region, especially inSaudi Arabia, reflected by an increase in planned spending onrestaurants, bars, and entertainment outside the home. The post-pandemic desire to travel also lingers, although Saudi Arabianconsumers indicate some tendency toward local staycations dueto an expanding tourism offering and its relative affordability. Despite the region's overall growth narrative, consumption bifurcationremains prevalent. As discount retailers increasingly penetrate themarket, some consumers are trading down to more affordableretailers and value brands, particularly in groceries. There are profitability challenges for some companies in the region,coupled with reports of re