经合组织经济展望，2026年第1卷：压力之下

Under Pressure June 2026Volume 2026/1, No. 119 OECDECONOMICOUTLOOK PRELIMINARY VERSION This work is issued under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD, and does not necessarily reflect theofficial views of OECD Member countries. This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty overany territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use ofsuch data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements inthe West Bank under the terms of international law. Note by the Republic of Türkiye The information in this document with reference to “Cyprus” relates to the southern part of the Island. There is no singleauthority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people on the Island. Türkiye recognises the Turkish Republic ofNorthern Cyprus (TRNC). Until a lasting and equitable solution is found within the context of the United Nations, Türkiyeshall preserve its position concerning the “Cyprus issue”. Note by all the European Union Member States of the OECD and the European UnionThe Republic of Cyprus is recognised by all members of the United Nations with the exception of Türkiye. Theinformation in this document relates to the area under the effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus. Kosovo*: This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with United Nations Security CouncilResolution 1244/99 and the Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice on Kosovo’s declaration ofindependence. Please cite this publication as: OECD (2026),OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2026 Issue 1: Under Pressure, OECD Publishing, Paris,https://doi.org/10.1787/2d1956f0-en. ISBN 978-92-64-46296-0 (print)ISBN 978-92-64-90101-8 (PDF)ISBN 978-92-64-81994-8 (HTML) OECD Economic OutlookISSN 0474-5574 (print)ISSN 1609-7408 (online) Photo credits:Cover © Narong Khueankaew/Shutterstock.com. Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found at: https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/support/corrigenda.html.© OECD 2026 Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence. By using this work, you accept to be bound by the terms of this licence(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Attribution– you must cite the work.Translations– you must cite the original work, identify changes to the original and add the following text:In the event of any discrepancy between the original work and thetranslation, only the text of the original work should be considered valid.Adaptations– you must cite the original work and add the following text:This is an adaptation of an original work by the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed inthis adaptation should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its Member countries.Third-party material– the licence does not apply to third-party material in the work. If using such material, you are responsible for obtaining permission from the third party and forany claims of infringement.You must not use the OECD logo, visual identity or cover image without express permission or suggest the OECD endorses your use of the work.Any dispute arising under this licence shall be settled by arbitration in accordance with the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) Arbitration Rules 2012. The seat of arbitration shallbe Paris (France). The number of arbitrators shall be one. Table of contents Acknowledgements7 EditorialUnder pressure9 1. General assessment of the macroeconomic situation11Introduction12Recent developments15Scenarios32Risks41Policies51References66Annex 1.A. Policy and otherassumptions underlying the projections in the time-limiteddisruption scenario69 2. From energy shocks to stronger resilience Introduction72Energy prices have surged but exposure differs across countries, firms and households74Many countries have acted quickly to provide relief77Lessons from the 2022-23 energy crisis81Enhancing administrative capacity to deliver targeted and timely support85Strengthening the resilience of energy systems87References96 3. The fiscal and economic impacts of higher defence spending99 Summary100Defence spending is on the rise100Large increases in defence spending add pressure to the public finances105Defence spending could provide a near-term boost to economic activity106Longer-term economic effects of defence spending are highly uncertain112References113 4.Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economies117Argentina118Australia121Austria124Belgium127Brazil130Bulgaria134 CanadaChileChinaColombiaCosta RicaCroatiaCzechiaDenmarkEstoniaEuro areaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIndi