日本经济展望：油价冲击与政策转折点

Japan Japan Economic Perspectives Japaneconomicoutlook:Oilpriceshock and a policy turning pointGrowthforecastlowered, inflation forecastsharply raised:In our"World Chief Economist+81-3-6730-0683 Outlook"report publishedon June1,we revised ouroutlookfor Japan'seconomyandmonetarypolicy.Thisreportprovidesadetailedexplanationof those revisions.Following a significant upward revision to our oil priceassumptions (+50%for the2026average),we have loweredour realGDPgrowthforecastto 0.7%forFY2026 (from 1.0%in February) and 0.8%forFY2027(from0.9%).Conversely,wehavesharplyraisedourcore-coreCPIinflationforecastto2.5%forFY2026(from2.0%)and2.7%forFY2027(from 2.0%).Our inflation outlook is above the market consensus. Inflationary pressures and non-linear pricepass-through:The AprilCorporate Goods Price Index (CGPl) showed a much stronger-than-expected increase, suggesting a high probability that"non-linearity"wherepricepass-throughacceleratesoncecostincreasesexceedacertainthreshold-hasmaterialized.Weexpecttheriseincorporategoodspricesgreaterthan what standard model simulations suggest. We forecast core-coreCPlinflationtoacceleratetoaround3.5%inthefirsthalfof2027beforegraduallydeceleratingtoward2%. BoJ toaccelerate its hiking pace,policyrate to reach 1.75%:We havesignificantly revised our monetary policy outlook for the BoJ, reflectingheightenedtensions intheMiddle Eastandtheassociated upsideriskstoinflation.Wenowbelievethatthepreviousgradualpaceofratehikeswouldmakeitdifficulttoanchorinflationexpectations.WeexpecttheBoJtohikeitspolicy rate quarterlyfrom July2026, reaching1.75%by April 2027.Thislevel is near themidpoint of the BoJ's estimated rangeforthe neutral rate. Real economy to soften, but financial conditions toremainaccommodative: Higher oil prices and accelerating inflation will likelyconsumersentiment.However, ample industrial inventoriessandgovernment efforts to diversify supply chains should mitigate a severeimpacton production.WhiletheBoJ is expectedto raise rates,weanticipatethatfinancial conditionswill remainaccommodativeforthetimebeing, as judged by real interest rates and the financial conditions index. JapanEconomicPerspectives Japan'seconomyandmonetarypolicy.Thisreportprovidesadetailedexplanationofthose revisions. WehavesharplyraisedourBrent crudepriceforecastfor2Q2026to$109/barrelfrom$60/barrel.Althoughweexpectthepricetodeclineto$86/barrelbyyear-end,ouraverageforecastfor2026isrevisedupbyapproximately50%,from$61.5/barrelto s93/barrel.This outlook is based ontheassumption thatpassagethroughtheStrait of Hormuz would resume in June. If the resumption is delayed until aftersummer,weexpectBrentcrudetoincreasetoward $150/barrel. prices on the real economy.This is because,as we discuss later, firms exhibit non-linearbehavior,tendingtoraiseprices atanaccelerating rateoncecost increasessurpass a certainthreshold. However,asabenchmark,simulationsbasedontheBoJ'smacroeconomicmodel(Q-JEM)indicatethatsucharisewouldinitiallypushupcoreCPl(allitemslessfreshfood)throughhigherenergy-relatedprices (peakingat+0.6%afteroneyear,Figure1).At the same time, it would weaken consumption by reducing real income,causinginflationarypressurestograduallysubsidethereafter.Underthispath,realGDPwouldbepusheddownbyabout0.5%inthefirstyearandacumulative0.9%overtwoyears. In reality,various governmentmeasures to curbprice increaseswill likelyrestraintherise inthe inflationrate,atleastinthe shortterm,morethanthemodelsuggests. Japan Economic Perspectives the above simulation likely underestimates the potential rise in inflation. experience major supply chain disruptions. The basis for this assumption isdiscussed later. FY2026 (from 1.0%in February)and 0.8%forFY2027 (from 0.9%)(Figure2).Conversely,we have significantly raised our core-core CPl inflation forecasts to2.5%forFY2026 (from2.0%)and 2.7%forFY2027(from2.0%).While ourgrowthit (Figure3).Dueto thiseconomic slowdown,we expectthepositive outputgapto Japan EconomicPerspectives 2026 Figure 4: Outlook for output gap Impactontherealeconomy Consumptionlikelytoturnnegative Consumersentiment has already deteriorated sharplyfollowingthe escalation oftensionsintheMiddleEastandtheriseinoilprices sinceMarch,suggestingafuturedecline in consumption (Figure 5).With inflation expected to accelerate, weanticipatethatrealemployee compensation will remainona downwardtrendforthe rest of the year (Figure 6). Thereafter, as inflation decelerates, we expect thehigherinflationfromthelatterhalfofthisyeartobereflectedwithalag innextyear'ssummerbonuses is belowlastyear'slevel.Akeypointtowatchwill bethe extentto which higher inflation is reflected in winter bonuses. Japan EconomicPerspectives Crude oil import volumes fell sharply in April, down 62.6% MoM (seasonally adjusted)and63.7%YoY.Despitethis,supplyconstraintshavebeenlimitedtoafewitems,andoverall production activityhasremainedfirm (Figure7).Webelieveonereason forthis is the amplelevel of inventories.Since the pandemic,theinventory-to-shipm