维萨：与首席执行官瑞安·麦克纳尔尼炉边谈话的思考

+1 917 344 8485harshita.rawat@bernsteinsg.com +1 917 344 8614viola.chen@bernsteinsg.com +1917 344 8329simran.ratani@bernsteinsg.com Ev Visa: Reflections on our Fireside Chat with CEO Ryan Mclnerney Conferencelastweek.Keytopicsdiscussed included1)Value-Added Services (whatarethey and what is Visa's rightto win?,2)Agentic Commerce and Visa's opportunity,3)Autonomousagentpayments (and Visa's nimbleness aroundproductandcommercialmodels),4)Stablecoin-linkedcards'enormousgrowth&stablecoins'productmarketfitinconsumerpayments,and 5) Visa's opportunity set in consumerandcommercialpayments.This notecontains our key insights from that call (see next page fordetails). Controversies (e.g.,agentic, stablecoins) have historically come and gone for Visa. However,we believe the biggest fundamentalquestion with regard to Visa is around the growthrunwayfor value added services (VAS).Overall,wecame awayincrementallybullisharound Visa'sgrowthprospects and righttowin intheseeminglyamorphous value-added services. Visa is simply shipping more product at a higher velocity with greaterproduct-market-fit, and leveraging its existing distribution model to scale value-addedservices across its ecosystem ofissuers and acquirers.Tokens not only solidify Visa's moatbutalsoprovideanavenueforvalue-added services distribution.Ryanbelievesthat vAsis a significantly biggeropportunity vs.consumer payments.Note thatthefourkeyareasincludeissuing (weest.~40%ofVASbasedon2024disclosures),acceptance (weest.~28% of VAS as of 2024), risk and security (we est.17% of VAS)and advisory/other. AgenticCommerceis oftendiscussedasapotential riskforVisa.It's verymuchtheopposite (more digitization,transactions & VAS). In the agentic world (where trust will bescarce), cards (with array of services, 5B+ credentials, 100m+ merchants) will quite likelybethepaymentmethod of choice.Visa can also easilyadjust its commercial modelstoaccommodateautonomous agentmicrotransactions (anewflow).Thereisthen theoptionalitywith B2B where agentic commerce has the strongest product market fit. Stablecoins, similarly,are firmly in the opportunity camp-Visa isthe interoperabilitylayer between blockchain infra and the real-world.Thebestproductmarket fitforstablecoins inconsumerpaymentsis,ironically,a stablecoin-linked Visa card,volumes on which aregrowing rapidly.Visa is also using stablecoins as a settlementinfrastructure (largelyforcryptonative companies webelieve). InvestmentImplications spending remains robust, with broad-based resilience across discretionary/non-discretionary categories,income cohortsand geos.Further, based on numbers updated mid-May, Visa also saw slight improvement across US domestic spending,paymenttransactions and cross-border (through today). One of the notablechanges at Visa since Ryan took over,in our view, hasbeen improved product velocity,and increasedfrequencyof partnerships across the ecosystem (somewhat relatedtoproductvelocity). re-oriented product development to align more with Visa's 3pillars i.e.consumer payments,value-added services andcommercial andmoney movement solutions.Visa also realigned its scrumteams and redesigned product developmentcycle,alignedincentivesandsharedOKRsacrossteamstoimproveexecution. integrating regional client/country manager feedback in early development, which is helping improve product market fitandadoption. Ryanprovided theexampleofarecent importantinnovation,FlexCredentials,which is seeing strong adoption acrossfinancial institutions, fintechs, BNPL, crypto players, etc. newcommerceflowsaroundautonomousagenttransactions-theareaswhereVisahasarighttowin.Ryannotedthat while still in the early stages, Agentic Commerce will represent a significant wave of digitization globally - similar to theprevious waves of mCommerce/eCommerce, which helped Visa. Agentic will also result in incremental transactions e.g.,asbaskets mayget split.There is also optionalitywithin entirely neweconomic constructs such as agent-to-agent transactions(e.g.,very small ticket transactionsfor compute,tokens, images).Agentic can also accelerate B2B digitization with real valuebeing provided to buyers and sellers - in Ryan's view, this segment has the best product market fit for agentic commerce. .Ryan highlightedthat Visa credentials are alsobetter-positioned (vs.otherpaymentmethods)inagenticcommerce,as they offerbroad-basedacceptance, well-established rules and criteria,customer protectionsfor returns,frauds across its ecosystem of 5B+ credentials across 200M merchant locations globally.This is different vs.sayastablecoin, which provides instant irrevocable transaction without broad based acceptance or rules around disputes,etc.RyannotedThe Visa platform ispurpose-built inmany ways forthe rise ofwhat's going tohappen in terms ofagenticcommerce.Thelimitingfactorforagenticcommercewillbetrust,whichiswhatVisabringstothetable. We also discussed in detail, the new economic construct around agent-to-agent micro-transactions where the comman